An Moto: Recent market fluctuations may be an overreaction. There is no significant change in the Japanese economy.

2024-08-06 15:32

Zhitongcaijing
Yasumoto said that from an economic perspective, there have been no significant changes in the Japanese economy.
Ray Sharma-Ong, Director of the Southeast Asia Multifaceted Asset Investment Program at Ambon, stated that they have observed weakness in US data such as a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, weak wage growth, rising unemployment rates, and slowing wage growth. Ambon believes that the data indicates an economic slowdown rather than a turnaround, and there is no significant financial imbalance. The Federal Reserve also has a 525 basis point interest rate reduction space to support the economy, and they can choose to stop quantitative tightening and restart quantitative easing if necessary. If their analysis is correct, recent market trends may be considered an overreaction.
Ray Sharma-Ong also pointed out that if economic growth slows down and a recession occurs, it may pose a challenge to the profit recovery seen in non-tech industries. As the expansion momentum may slow down, the profits of tech stocks may outperform cyclical stocks in non-tech industries. If the market prefers profitability and growth, tech stocks could once again lead the market.
Regarding Japan, Ray Sharma-Ong stated that the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance, weak US data leading to a weaker US dollar, and unwinding of arbitrage trading positions by investors have exacerbated the significant selling in Japanese stocks, resulting in a sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen. From an economic perspective, there has been no major change in the Japanese economy. The unwinding of arbitrage trades has fueled much of the selling momentum. He also noted that the Japanese market tends to oversell during significant selling periods. In the past 10 years, the TOPIX index has experienced three corrections of over 10%, and each time the market has quickly recovered.