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Schroder: US economic growth helps boost the vigorous development of emerging Asian markets.
Schroder's Chief Investment Officer of Diversified Assets, She Kangru, pointed out that in the first half of 2024, the continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has driven related companies to grow in strong profitability.
Schroders Global diversified asset investment director She Kangru pointed out that in the first half of 2024, the continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence drove growth for related companies in strong profitability. In addition to the United States, other major markets focusing on artificial intelligence themes also benefited from this trend, with Taiwan, China performing the best among index markets from the beginning of the year to date. Looking ahead, Schroders Global expects the United States to remain a major driver of global economic growth this year. With strong growth in job positions, good growth in real wages, and improved consumer confidence, domestic demand is expected to remain stable. The strong economic growth is also expected to support the ongoing recovery of the global manufacturing cycle. Furthermore, as inflation gradually falls, it is expected that the United States will begin to cut interest rates, providing a favorable environment for the stock market. In this environment, Schroders Global still believes that the stabilization of the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index will continue to drive the export recovery of emerging Asian markets, especially cyclical markets such as Taiwan and South Korea. On the other hand, fundamental factors continue to favor the U.S. stock market. With bond volatility trending towards stabilization and recent earnings forecasts being revised upward, although Schroders Global currently remains positive about the United States, it will remain cautious about potential volatility that may arise in the second half of the year. In terms of fixed income, Schroders Global points out that several major central banks have started to cut interest rates, including the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank. Although the market expects the Fed to cut rates later this year, Schroders Global still takes a strategic position on bond duration based on valuation. As of now, Schroders Global's models show that the pricing of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is reasonable, and rate cuts will provide support to the yield curve. Due to the diversification nature of the U.S. dollar, which can help diversify risks and provide positive interest rate differentials, Schroders Global believes that investing in the U.S. dollar will be beneficial in reducing portfolio economic fluctuations. Lastly, Schroders Global expects physical gold market demand to provide long-term support for gold prices. Schroders Global maintains a positive view because gold prices will benefit from lower real interest rates and gold can also protect against the adverse effects of persistent inflation and geopolitical risks.
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