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Morgan Stanley Fund: Will the household appliance industry see a turnaround under the "trade-in" policy?
Morgan Stanley Fund stated that the overall valuation level of the home appliance sector is not high, core varieties are operating steadily, and the expected policy stimulus in this round may boost the valuation of the entire sector, and play a certain role in supporting the profitability of enterprises in terms of domestic sales.
The Morgan Stanley Fund released an article stating that on July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued several measures to support the exchange of old for new large-scale equipment and consumer goods, supporting the exchange of old appliances for new ones. According to the data on total retail sales of consumer goods announced by the National Bureau of Statistics for the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate in April/May/June was 2.3%/3.7%/2.0%, compared to the previous two periods of 5.5%/3.1%, the growth rate has slowed significantly. As household appliances are an important direction for household consumption, the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption is important for boosting the consumption sector. The overall valuation level of the household appliance sector is not high, and core varieties are operated stably. It is expected that this round of policy stimulus will boost the valuation of the entire sector to a certain extent, and play a certain role in supporting profit margins for domestic sales of enterprises. On February 23, 2024, the Fourth Meeting of the Central Finance and Economic Committee clearly proposed to encourage the exchange of old for new traditional durable consumer goods such as cars and household appliances, while insisting on the joint support of central finance and local governments, and coordinating support for all links of the entire industry chain. On July 24, 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued several measures to support the exchange of old for new large-scale equipment and consumer goods, supporting the exchange of old appliances for new. Promoting the large-scale exchange of old appliances and other consumer goods, represented by household appliances, has become an important measure for expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development in China. Looking back, when faced with challenges in the macroeconomic environment, the Chinese government has also introduced stimulus policies in the household appliance sector. In 2008, affected by the global financial crisis, Chinese product exports were impacted, and the domestic economy faced downward pressure. In order to expand domestic demand, drive production to promote stable economic growth, the Chinese government successively launched three major policies in the area of household appliances: rural appliance subsidies, energy-saving for the people, and exchange of old for new. The policy implementation period was concentrated from 2007 to 2013, with subsidies exceeding one trillion and driving appliance consumption over one trillion. Compared to the past, the current policy of exchanging old for new appliances is more noteworthy for the following four aspects: Subsidies are provided for multiple categories such as air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, water heaters, kitchen appliances, and computers, with increased subsidies for products with first-class energy efficiency; The subsidy intensity is greater, with this round of subsidies for the exchange of old appliances for new products set at 15% of the selling price and 20% for products with first-class energy efficiency, while the subsidy amount in the previous round was about 10% to 13%; The proportion of central government funding has been further increased, with the previous round of subsidies funded jointly by central and provincial governments, with the central government bearing 80% of the burden and provincial governments bearing 20%, while in this round of exchange of old for new, the central/provincial governments bear 90%/10% respectively, and the central government directly allocates around 150 billion yuan in long-term special national bonds to support household appliances, cars, and other major product categories; The subsidy amount is valid until the end of the year. Considering that it is already August, it is expected that the supporting detailed rules will be implemented rapidly, and the stimulating effect of the subsidies is expected to gradually appear in the coming months.
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