Kelvin Wong, Chief Economist and Strategist of Da Xin Bank, believes that the chances of the United States falling into a recession in the short term are low. While job growth has slowed significantly, it remains healthy compared to pre-pandemic levels, and real income continues to grow steadily. Due to the possibility of a slower decline in inflation and the fact that the risk of an economic recession is not imminent, the interest rate cuts by major central banks worldwide this year may be lower than market expectations. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in May or June this year. He stated that before the United States officially enters an interest rate reduction cycle, the cost of capital in Hong Kong will remain high. For most of the first half of 2024, the interbank rates in Hong Kong are likely to remain at or above 5%. In the second half of the year, the prospects of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may become clearer, and interbank rates in Hong Kong may gradually decline, but there is still a high chance of remaining above 4%. He pointed out that in addition to the level of capital costs, whether the most favorable interest rates in Hong Kong will be lowered will also be considered by the banking sector in response to factors such as the overall economic environment, loan demand, and industry competition. It is expected that the most favorable interest rates may be lowered in the fourth quarter of this year. Regarding the Hong Kong property market, he anticipates continued downward pressure, with Hong Kong mortgage rates still facing upward pressure, remaining higher than rental yields, which may continue to dampen the property market sentiment. Rental rates are expected to rise faster, potentially easing the downward pressure on property prices, and if interest rates peak, there is a chance that property prices could bottom out this year. Regarding whether the government will introduce a capital gains tax, he responded that if the government were to introduce a capital gains tax, based on examples from other countries, there may be various forms of exemptions. Introducing a capital gains tax in stocks would require convincing relevant stakeholders, as it would signify a significant change in Hong Kong's low tax environment, and there would be significant difficulties in overcoming resistance.