BlackRock: US technology companies profit exceeded expectations, maintaining overweight on US and Japanese stocks.

2024-08-16 07:01

Zhitongcaijing
BlackRock remains overweight on the Japanese stock market and US stocks, and is optimistic about investment opportunities related to the artificial intelligence theme.
BlackRock released a statement stating that according to related data, in the second quarter of this year, the profit growth rates of the US technology industry and non-technology industry were 20% and 5% respectively, both exceeding previous expectations. Although the technology industry is in a leading position, the non-technology industry is expected to achieve its first profit growth since the end of 2022, indicating that the momentum of strong profit growth may be expanding. Cost pressures easing and inflation moderating are both favorable for US companies. BlackRock remains overweight on the Japanese stock market and US stocks, and is optimistic about investment opportunities related to the artificial intelligence theme.
Recently, the Bank of Japan has been trying to normalize its policies without causing a decline in inflation. In July, the Bank of Japan suddenly raised interest rates, and its policy framework became unclear, with the exchange rate of the yen being taken into consideration. With the increasing number of policy mistakes made by the Bank of Japan, it is now implementing policies more cautiously, hence BlackRock maintains an overweight view on Japanese stocks. Further unwinding of arbitrage trades and yen strengthening could pose risks, but the mild inflation in Japan contributes to a virtuous cycle, helping to improve wage levels and corporate profits. Reforms that benefit shareholder value are also crucial.
In the recent volatility of global stock markets last week, Japanese stocks were hit the hardest. Meanwhile, the increase in the US unemployment rate in July has raised concerns in the market about a US economic recession. However, based on historical data, the current US unemployment rate is still relatively low, and the rise in unemployment is due to the continuous increase in labor force brought by immigrants, rather than unemployment itself. In the past six months, the total employment in the US has increased by over 1 million, far exceeding levels before the economic recession. Taking into account all these data, BlackRock believes that this is actually a slowdown in economic growth, not an economic recession.