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HanYa Investment: Asian bonds are a resilient asset class and long-term holding is the key to success.
Asian bonds are a resilient asset class that can withstand drops, providing stable returns even in the face of stock market fluctuations.
HanAsia Investment Research pointed out that according to the annual returns of Asian bonds and Asian stocks, 2008 and 2022 were significantly exceptional years. During the global financial crisis in 2008 and the significant interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2022, both bonds and stocks experienced historic losses. Aside from these years, most returns are in the upper left and upper right quadrants, meaning that Asian bonds are a category of assets with strong resilience to falls, providing stable returns even in the face of stock market fluctuations. Therefore, long-term holding is particularly important for Asian bonds. Danny Tan, Head of Fixed Income at HanAsia Singapore, noted that as retirement savings grow, market depth and liquidity will improve, which is crucial for further growth of the Asian bond market. At the same time, the breadth of investors has also expanded; with increasing interest and knowledge in bond instruments, coupled with the emergence of online investment platforms, convenience for retail bond investors has improved. Another growing area is sustainable bond financing. In recent years, as Asian countries adopt leading international standards and implement frameworks that help define sustainable activities, issuers and investors are actively promoting this investment theme. These bond issuers come from high carbon-emitting industries seeking to transition to a low-carbon economy. After 2023, the Asian USD bond market rapidly grew, with issuers relatively diversified and spread across various Asian countries, until China became a major issuing country in 2010. As of the end of December 2023, the size of the local currency bond market in Asia reached $25.2 trillion, with a growth rate higher than that of the US and Europe; the size of the local currency bond market in Asia is approximately 67% of the US and 117% of Europe. In terms of scale (outstanding local currency bonds), China, Japan, and Korea are the three largest markets. China's market share is the highest at 58%. Compared to US bonds, Asian bonds also demonstrate superior ability to provide higher returns with much lower volatility. Relative to interest rates in certain hard currencies like USD and Euro, the volatility of interest rates in Asian local currencies is lower in the current environment. Therefore, Asian governments and companies are increasingly using Asian currency bonds to leverage the advantage of lower interest rate volatility. Danny indicated that the characteristics of the Asian local currency market are driven by interest rates and foreign exchange, rather than credit. Benefiting from economic reforms over the past decade and the continuous improvement in issuer information quality, the attractiveness of Asian fixed income investments is growing. Investors outside of Asia are becoming more familiar with the Asian market and are more willing to consider investing in Asia, including Asian local currency bonds. Investors are also turning to the Asian bond market in search of higher and higher quality returns. Asia is also attractive from a diversification perspective, as various Asian markets provide investors with different investment opportunities. For example, Malaysia has the world's most diversified, largest, unique, and mature Islamic bond (sukuk) market. Choong Kuan Lum, Head of Fixed Income in HanAsia Malaysia, pointed out that Malaysia has the highest proportion of outstanding Islamic bonds globally (about 40%), followed by Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey. Wai Mei Leong, Portfolio Manager at HanAsia Singapore, stated that with Japanese and Australian issuers issuing more bonds in the US dollar bond market to attract major investors based in Singapore and Hong Kong and focusing on the Asian market, early signs of further diversification in investments are already emerging.
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