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DWS: The United States cut interest rates for the first time in September, and holds a cautious stance towards the overall market in the United States.
DWS expects the United States to cut interest rates for the first time in September, despite Federal Reserve Chairman Powell admitting that further progress has been made on the road to achieving the 2% inflation target. However, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the end of July meeting.
According to the latest market outlook report released by DWS via the APP, the United States is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in September 2024. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has admitted that progress has been made towards achieving the 2% inflation target, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rates unchanged at the end of July. Recently, the US stock market has shown a negative sentiment towards the "Seven Tech Giants". There is a noticeable division in views on AI, with doubts arising about the potential return on high-class AI investments. DWS continues to adopt a cautious stance towards the overall US market. The recent sharp decline in the US stock market at the beginning of August is seen as a reasonable adjustment, and market volatility may continue in the coming weeks. However, it is not believed that a bear market is imminent. DWS points out that Japanese stocks are gradually becoming a quality alternative to Chinese stocks, with overseas investors significantly increasing their allocations to the Japanese market. Corporate governance reform and improving shareholder returns are key drivers of the Japanese market. It is recommended to take advantage of short-term weakness in individual stocks to build long-term positions, while still maintaining a neutral deployment. In addition, the prospects for European companies are promising, with strong earnings momentum. European companies are expected to record profit growth for the fourth consecutive year in 2024. DWS currently maintains a "buy" rating for European stocks. DWS maintains a neutral stance on emerging market stocks. Overall, bearish factors are increasing, with some election results disappointing the market, the US dollar remaining strong, US interest rates staying at a high level, and geopolitical risks rising again, all negatively impacting emerging market stocks. DWS states that despite the market turbulence at the end of July and the beginning of August, the price of gold remains strong, demonstrating its value as a safe haven investment. There is still potential for further increases in the gold price, especially in the short term, as uncertainty about the US economic development and future Fed rate policies continue to support the gold price. In addition, the current trend in oil prices reflects a stable supply situation, with OPEC and Russia expected to implement long-term production increase plans, and the current oil prices indicating a very low risk of supply disruptions.
Schroder Investment: Central banks around the world are joining the interest rate cuts team. How will this affect global bond market investments?
Eastfund Wealth Management: Early signs of stock market rotation have emerged, with opportunities potentially found in underperforming small-cap stocks.