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Swiss Julius Baer Bank: The Japanese yen still has upside potential, but the pace is slow.
Swiss Julius Baer Bank's forex strategist Dr. Claudio Wewel released the latest market research report, indicating that the yen slightly weakened after the halt in its rise last week, prompting market attention to its future trends.
Swiss Julius Baer Bank's foreign exchange strategist Dr. Claudio Wewel released the latest market research report, indicating that after the yen's upward trend stopped last week, it has weakened slightly, sparking market interest in its future trend. Although the recent decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate has significantly reduced the forex yield differential, it has not completely narrowed, indicating that the yen still has further upside potential. Given that recent data shows that most speculative short positions have already been cleared, the yen's appreciation pace will be slower. Therefore, it is expected that the USD/JPY will remain at current levels in the short term and will tend towards 140 yen per 1 US dollar by the end of the year. A series of events have triggered the yen's rebound, including: weaker-than-expected US CPI in June, forex intervention strengthening the initial trend, a hawkish attitude at the Bank of Japan's meeting in July, as well as disappointing US manufacturing and labor market data. Perhaps most importantly, the significant rebound of the yen has triggered what may be the largest yen carry trade unwinding in 20 years. Although this unwinding has significantly reduced the interest differential between the USD and JPY, it has not fully closed, indicating that the yen still has further upside potential.
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