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ICBC Asia: The investment cycle of AI technology can last for several years and the demand for chips in the future will continue to rise.
Regarding the wave of artificial intelligence (AI), Cheng Jiawei, Senior Economist of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Asia Financial Markets Department, stated that AI applications are the main cycle of technological upgrade and replacement. Similar to the popularization of personal computers in the 1980s, the emergence of the Internet in the 1990s, and the popularization of smartphones in the 2000s, AI will gradually phase out enterprises that cannot keep up with technological advancements.
Regarding the wave of artificial intelligence (AI), Cheng Jiawei, Senior Economist at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of Asia Financial Market Department, stated that AI applications are a major technological upgrade cycle. Similar to the past popularity of personal computers in the 1980s, the emergence of the internet in the 1990s, and the widespread adoption of smartphones in the 2000s, companies that cannot keep up with technological developments will gradually be phased out. Therefore, tech giants prefer to over-invest rather than fall behind the trends. He believes that the investment cycle related to AI technology can continue for several years. Cheng Jiawei also pointed out that the entire AI industry chain is very long, including technology research and development, hardware manufacturing, server manufacturing and assembly, software services, and AI applications. Therefore, the chip industry is still in a rapid growth phase, unlike the situation of smartphones reaching a growth bottleneck and weak companies being eliminated. He mentioned that AI applications in the chip industry are not yet fully popularized, and more hardware applications are still being developed. The demand for chips is expected to continue to rise in the future. Currently, there is a wide range of AI concept-related investments in the market, with some companies having quite high valuations. Although the industry is growing rapidly, it is important to note that valuation growth may be too fast, and there may be significant market adjustments. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the Jackson Hole meeting that the time to cut interest rates has come. Cheng Jiawei believes that this statement will not change the possibility or magnitude of a rate cut in September; however, he forecasts a conservative rate cut pace. He believes that the overall signal being sent to the market from now until next year is dovish. He predicts a 25-point rate cut in September and December this year, and a total rate cut of 100 points by 2025. The expected terminal rate for this rate cut cycle is around 3.0%.
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