Schroders global fixed income investment director Wu Meiyan stated that it is expected to enter a more accommodative interest rate environment in the second half of 2024, which is favorable for global bond market investors. After reviewing recent economic data, Schroders global has adjusted the probability of an economic "hard landing" from 5% to 20%. Schroders global maintains the risk of an economic "non-landing" at 5%. Although the probability of a "soft landing" has been lowered from 90% to 75%, it is worth emphasizing that it is still the baseline forecast scenario for Schroders global at the current stage. There are two main factors behind Schroders global's adjustment of the probability of an economic "hard landing". First, recent global manufacturing indicators, including data from the US, Eurozone, and China, have all declined in August. The second reason is the further signs of weakness in the US labor market. Job growth rates are lower than expected, initial claims for unemployment benefits have increased, and consumer confidence in the labor market has declined. Schroders global's baseline forecast scenario remains an economic "soft landing". Schroders global believes that the impact of tightening financial and credit conditions on economic growth prospects is still very limited at the current stage. Given the extent to which bond prices have been repriced due to market volatility, Schroders global does not intentionally increase the nominal duration of bond portfolios, meaning that the company tends to hold fewer long-term bonds. In order to obtain investment returns from extending duration in the current economic environment, financial markets must be more pessimistic about economic growth prospects and anticipate more rate cuts from central banks starting now.