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BlackRock: It takes time for capital expenditures to fully income, patience is still needed for artificial intelligence.
BlackRock believes that it may take some time before the capital expenditure on artificial intelligence fully translates into income.
In recent months, the market's discussion of the benefits of artificial intelligence has shifted, with concerns rising that companies investing heavily in AI may struggle to quickly see returns. BlackRock believes that it may take some time for capital expenditures on AI to fully revenue. Some tech companies have reported revenue growth from AI-related products. BlackRock remains overweight on the AI theme and is closely monitoring several key indicators to assess whether the optimistic view on the AI theme is reasonable: 1) whether the revenue growth of major AI companies shows signs of stagnation, focusing on data from each financial reporting season; 2) changes in the adoption of AI in sectors other than the tech industry where usage is still relatively low; 3) signs of a slowdown in US economic growth, as this could lead large tech companies to cut spending. Investing in AI is similar to past capital expenditures in technological innovation areas such as cloud computing. However, shareholders may not view further investment in AI as the best use of a company's balance sheet. There is a disconnect between some investors' short-term perspective and the long-term vision of tech and cloud service providers. This discrepancy has caused unease among investors, but BlackRock believes patience is necessary. Companies investing heavily in AI have already planned capital expenditures for building new data centers to significantly enhance AI processing power. These plans will take several years to complete, not just a few quarters. Therefore, it may take some time for AI capital expenditures to fully revenue. In fact, some tech companies have reported revenue growth from AI-related products. BlackRock states that overall AI capital expenditures have the potential to drive a transformation wave, fueled by disruptive or structural trends. NVIDIA's revenue doubled in the second quarter of this year compared to a year ago, demonstrating that AI capital expenditures are not only significant but also ongoing. NVIDIA's performance also indicates that its AI business is expanding into broader sectors, with over half of AI revenue coming from non-tech industries. Furthermore, BlackRock tracks the impact of AI on the economy and the market through three stages. Currently, as large tech companies compete to invest in building data centers, the first stage, the construction phase, is actively underway. In this phase, early winners are primarily companies making substantial investments and chip manufacturers. Additionally, companies providing essential resources such as energy, utilities, and real estate to these enterprises also have investment opportunities. In the second stage, AI applications will expand beyond the tech industry to fields such as healthcare and finance. This may lead to a general increase in productivity in the third stage, but the specific scale and impact are still uncertain.
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