Faith Bar: Chinese policy coordination may drive offshore Chinese stocks up 5-10%.

2024-09-11 19:05

Zhitongcaijing
Liu Cheng, managing director of macro research and head of equity and derivatives strategy in the Asia-Pacific region at Far East Bank, pointed out that if Chinese decision-makers coordinate properly in implementing stimulus policies, offshore Chinese stocks are expected to rise by 5% to 10% by the end of the year.
Lu Cheng, Director of Macroeconomic Research and Chief Equity and Derivatives Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region at Credit Suisse, pointed out that if Chinese policymakers coordinate their stimulus policies appropriately, offshore Chinese equities are expected to increase by 5% to 10% by the end of the year. He believes that improving policy coordination in China will help improve overall market sentiment, and in the meantime, dividend payouts and share buybacks remain attractive investment themes in the Hong Kong stock market.
Regarding A-shares, Lu Cheng believes that onshore Chinese equities are very sensitive to market liquidity, but the average daily trading volume in the A-share market has decreased since May. Despite the recent strength of the renminbi against the US dollar in the past one to two months, Chinese equities have not shown obvious gains. Lu Cheng attributes this mainly to market expectations of an interest rate cut in the US.
Lu Cheng believes that there are still thematic investment opportunities in the A-share market, including stocks benefiting from power reforms. Additionally, Alibaba (09988) recently joined the "Stock Connect" program, and Lu Cheng pointed out that the net inflow of funds through the Southbound Stock Connect has reached the second highest level on record since the beginning of the year, indicating that mainland Chinese investors will continue to invest in Hong Kong stocks. He explains that the premium of A-shares over H-shares, along with the income needs of mainland Chinese investors, are reasons driving the net inflows through the Stock Connect program.