LGT: It is expected that international funds will flow back into the stock market, and a "buy" attitude is held towards the stock markets of the United States, Japan, and India.

2024-01-15 19:59

Zhitongcaijing
Stefan Hofer, compared to stocks and cash, investors in the first half of the year are more inclined towards bond investments.
LGT Royal Bank (Asia) Chief Investment Strategist Stefan Hofer stated that he expects international funds to flow back into the stock market, with a current "overweight" stance on the stock markets of the US, Japan, and India. He mentioned that the global stock market's yield is equivalent to that of US corporate bond yields, which is a rare situation and presents an opportunity for investment-grade US dollar corporate bonds, with expected returns reaching 5%. Therefore, he anticipates that investors in the first half of the year will lean towards bond investments compared to stocks and cash.
Regarding the US economy, Stefan Hofer forecasts a significant slowdown in the first half of the year, leading to volatility in the US stock market. As inflation is expected to return to the 2% target by the third quarter or earlier, the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting rates in mid-year, believing that the economy will pick up speed again in the second half of the year, with the actual growth rate of the US economy estimated at around 2%.
In Japan, market expectations are that the Bank of Japan will move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy this year. Stefan Hofer predicts that the Bank of Japan will tighten its monetary policy in April or later, as the interest rate differential narrows due to rate cuts in the US and Europe, leading to an appreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar. The bank expects the Japanese yen to rise to 130 levels against the US dollar in the next 12 months.
The bank also has a positive outlook on Japanese stocks, pointing out that after corporate governance reforms, Japanese companies are now more focused on creating shareholder returns. In addition, with the depreciation of the yen expected by 2023, corporate profits are reaching historic highs. Although there are clear signs of continuous rise in consumer and asset prices at present, natural disasters and political uncertainty may weaken the economic outlook in the short term.
As for India, Stefan Hofer mentioned that although the valuation of the Indian stock market is high, considering the Indian government's strong investment in physical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, railways, and airports, he expects the actual GDP to grow by at least 6% this year. India has now become the second preferred market in Asia for LGT.
Public information shows that LGT is an international private banking and asset management group, owned and controlled entirely by the Princely House of Liechtenstein. LGT established its presence in Hong Kong in 1986 and launched its private bank (Asia) in 1999 to further expand the group's private banking business in Asia and explore the Asian market. LGT has offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Bangkok, Sydney, and Tokyo.