UBS Wealth Management: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024, and the S&P 500 is expected to rise to 5900 points by the end of the year.

2024-09-19 11:27

Zhitongcaijing
UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific Investment Director's office stated that the Federal Reserve is a latecomer in the global easing cycle.
UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific Investment Director's Office stated that the Federal Reserve is a latecomer to the global easing cycle. The European Central Bank has already cut interest rates twice. The Swiss National Bank, the Swedish Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Bank of England have also cut interest rates. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that the Fed does not believe it is behind the curve. He stated that the U.S. economy remains robust, and the labor market remains strong. Despite the 50 basis points cut in interest rates, the Committee is not in a rush to cut rates.
UBS Wealth Management pointed out that the Fed's updated economic forecasts confirm Powell's statement that the Committee does not believe that the risk of a recession is increasing. The Fed now expects the unemployment rate to be 4.4% at the end of this year, slightly higher than the 4% forecast at the June meeting, but still lower than historical norms. The forecast for the end of next year remains at a low level of 4.4%. At the same time, the Fed expects GDP to achieve steady growth, with a 2% year-on-year increase in the fourth quarter of this year, maintaining a similar growth rate for the next three years. This is in line with the bank's expectations of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.
The dot plot reflecting the Fed officials' interest rate expectations shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts of 50 basis points in the remaining policy meetings this year, followed by another 100 basis points cut in 2025. This is consistent with the bank's expectations of a loose monetary policy pace by the Fed. Historically, the U.S. market has performed well during interest rate cuts in non-recession periods, and this time is unlikely to be an exception. The bank's base case scenario is still that the S&P 500 index is expected to rise to 5900 points by the end of the year, and further increase to 6200 points by the end of June 2025.
In this context, UBS Wealth Management believes that investors may consider deploying in an environment of declining interest rates. Given that all evidence shows that inflation is under control, the Fed can now focus on supporting employment and growth while reducing the probability of a recession. The bank's base case scenario is still for a 100 basis point cut in interest rates for the full year 2024. With cash returns declining, investors may consider reallocating cash and money market funds to high-quality corporate and government bonds. In the current volatile market conditions, these assets have shown good value.
The bank also believes that the range of stock market increases is likely to expand, and growth stocks may have sustained upside potential, especially in the technology sector. In the technology sector, artificial intelligence (AI) may be a key driver of market returns in the coming years, so increasing exposure to this sector may be considered. Although the sector's volatility may increase over the next few months due to cyclical and geopolitical risks, this also provides an opportunity to establish a long-term AI position at more reasonable prices.
Furthermore, UBS Wealth Management suggests that including alternative assets in a well-diversified investment portfolio can help navigate changes in the macroeconomic environment. The bank believes that alternative assets are a strategic source of diversification and risk-adjusted returns. Hedge funds with low correlation to traditional assets may help reduce portfolio volatility. However, alternative assets have unique risks, including illiquidity and lower transparency.