Puris: The Japanese yen is weakening, but the global economy is resilient. Japanese stocks still have growth potential.

2024-01-19 10:54

Zhitongcaijing
The weakness of the Japanese yen was one of the reasons driving the strong performance of the Japanese stock market from February to November last year.
Daniel Hurley, an expert in emerging markets and Japanese stock portfolios, expressed his views on the prospects of the Japanese stock market. He stated that the Japanese stock market started the year 2024 strongly, with the TOPIX index rising by over 5%. However, despite a significant rise in December last year compared to other stock markets, the Japanese market performed flat. The weakness of the yen was one of the reasons that drove the strong performance of the Japanese stock market from February to November last year. However, due to the slowdown in US inflation and market expectations that the Fed might start cutting interest rates, the yen strengthened in December last year, which had a negative impact on export companies that make up a large portion of the TOPIX index. However, in 2024, the yen is expected to devalue by about 3%, leading to a rise in the stock market.
Hurley pointed out that about 50% of the revenue of the TOPIX index component stocks comes from outside Japan. Over the past two years, the yen has devalued by about 50%, making these export companies more competitive. Combined with the strong global economy, this means that global exporters are not affected by weak demand. The high interest rate environment in the US and Japan maintaining low interest rates are the primary reasons for the yen's weakness, but it also reflects Japan's dovish monetary policy.
Factors that drove the market's rise in 2023, such as the weak yen, a strong global economy, and corporate governance reform, will continue this year. The Tokyo Stock Exchange's latest reform plans are expected to further boost investment appetite and create more opportunities for investors. While the TOPIX index may struggle to maintain its strength from 2023 this year, it still has the potential to rise further; and the strengthening yen may pose a certain resistance to the stock market, but Japanese corporate valuations remain reasonable, with the long-term average P/E ratio staying at 14 times. Additionally, the corporate governance reform that was highlighted in 2023 will continue to be implemented for many years.
Driven by the three factors mentioned above (weak yen, strong global economy, and corporate governance reform), Japanese stocks attracted foreign investors in 2023. However, new regulations for NISA (Japanese individual savings accounts), which include permanent tax exemption, removal of holding period restrictions, and further increasing investment limits, are expected to boost the investment appetite of domestic investors in Japan. These new measures are likely to help improve the level of risk-taking for domestic investors in stocks and are expected to be beneficial for the long-term development of the stock market.