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Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the profit of mainland Chinese companies will increase by 8% to 10% this year, and there is room for rebound in stock market valuations.
Liu Jinjin predicts that this year there will be a net inflow of approximately 15 billion US dollars into A shares through the mutual access program, and approximately 45 billion yuan into H shares through the Stock Connect program.
Goldman Sachs' chief stock strategist for China, Liu Jinjin, said that the valuations of the Mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets have almost fallen to their lowest levels since the financial crisis. He believes that this already reflects investors' concerns about the macro environment and geopolitical issues. According to the bank's calculations, profits of mainland Chinese companies may grow by 8% to 10% this year, leaving room for a rebound in stock market valuations. Liu Jinjin predicts that about $15 billion may flow into A-shares through the Stock Connect this year, with about $45 billion flowing into H-shares through the Southbound Connect. However, as overseas investors still hold a 25% market share in Hong Kong stocks and mainland funds only account for about 11%, it may take time for the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks to shift to mainland funds. In addition, with geopolitical issues unlikely to be resolved in the short term, his view on Hong Kong stocks for this year is synchronized with the overall market. Liu Jinjin pointed out that overseas investors' overall holdings of Chinese stocks have dropped to historical lows. In the most pessimistic scenario, foreign funds such as U.S. retirement and mutual funds, as well as investors closely linked to the U.S. government, may liquidate all their Chinese stocks, potentially leading to a reduction in holdings of up to $170 billion. However, he believes the likelihood of this happening is small. Furthermore, Liu Jinjin expects that there may be more Middle East funds investing in Chinese stocks in the future. Despite the relatively small inflow of around $10 billion over the past two years, he believes that the investor structure in the Chinese stock market may gradually change in the future.
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