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Global X: OPEC+ may maintain oil production cuts until the end of the year to support the oil market.
Another factor that needs to be monitored is the extent to which OPEC member countries comply with their production cuts quotas and the potential additional reductions they may undertake.
Global X ETFs investment strategist Roberta Caselli pointed out that as expected, OPEC+ has announced that they will continue to implement the previously announced production cut plan this quarter to prevent an oil market surplus and support oil prices. The key issue now is whether OPEC+ intends to maintain production cuts after March. A clearer direction should be understood in the announcements to be made in the next 4 to 5 weeks. If OPEC+ relaxes restrictions and increases production, the oil market may experience a long-term surplus. Therefore, OPEC+ may maintain oil production cuts until the end of this year to effectively support the oil market. In November of last year, in response to slowing global demand growth and increased supply from competitors led by the United States, OPEC+ announced a further daily production cut of 900,000 barrels to limit output. Combined with voluntary extensions of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, daily production is expected to total around 2.2 million barrels by March of this year. Global X ETFs stated that another factor that needs to be continuously monitored is the extent to which OPEC member countries comply with their cut quotas and the potential for additional cuts. OPEC production cuts have raised the floor for the crude oil market, but excessive cuts can also reduce the market ceiling due to reduced returns. It is worth noting that after the recent announcement of production cuts, oil prices did not respond significantly; geopolitical risk premiums and a recovery in Chinese imports seem to be more supportive of oil prices than cartel policy. Oil production in the United States and other regions is at record highs, which means that despite OPEC+'s implementation of production cuts, global supply remains strong. US production has reached historic highs, and this level of production is expected to be maintained. Additionally, with plans to increase production in Guyana and Brazil oil fields, more US crude oil will enter the market. Therefore, outside of OPEC+, US oil producers will be the most key to watch.
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