Wilderness Asset Management Ling Peng: A-shares may switch to low valuation and high dividend distribution in the future.

2024-02-05 15:56

Zhitongcaijing
Switching needs to follow four criteria: volume, prosperity, valuation, and attributes. Based on these four criteria, institutions may switch to low valuations and high dividends in the future.
On February 1st, Peng Ling, from Huangyuan Asset Management, stated in an online meeting that at the end of last year, three judgments made by Peng Ling were all verified. First, small-cap and junk stocks are at the peak of a wave, with a similar level of danger to Maoning in February 2021. Second, Maoning is at the halfway point and may enter an accelerated disintegration period. Third, institutional heavyweights stocks may enter a third migration phase, with undervalued stocks rising and still in the early stages. Since November 2023, the market has entered a clear rotation period. The Maoding index has fallen by more than 15%, the Ning combination has fallen by more than 20%, and the biased stock mixed fund index has also fallen by more than 15%. In contrast, the Shanghai Dividend Index and the Undervalued Index have also generated a 5% absolute return during the same period.
Peng Ling pointed out that 80% of the time in the A-share market is in a "stock market", with only 2.5 times of "incremental market" in the past 20 years. The first time was from 2005 to 2007, driven by the economic expansion and ample liquidity from the surge in exports. The second time was from August 2014 to August 2015, with funds coming from P2P and shadow banking. The last half-time occurred from 2020 to 2021, with funds coming from stock investors changing to fundamental investors, showing structural market characteristics.
Analyzing the "stock market" and "incremental market", Peng Ling gained three insights. First, incremental funds tend to be slow to react. Even if there is money available, it may not enter the market; when the market starts, funds will follow. Second, incremental funds only assist the trend, not allocate. Incremental funds do not have specific preferences and only strengthen the previous trend. Third, in the next two years, it is likely to be a "stock market" or even a "declining market" situation.
Furthermore, Peng Ling also pointed out that there have been two major transitions in the A-share market in history. The first transition was from "cyclical dominance" to "growth dominance"; the second transition was from "growth dominance" to "Maoning collaboration". Analyzing these two "stock market" transitions, Huangyuan Asset Management found three rules.
First, before the transition, there will be a steep decline. It will continue to innovate and drop until people are too afraid to hold onto the original varieties. Second, the transition process will last a long time, requiring at least a few quarters. Old forces will counterattack, and new forces will be temporarily suppressed, which happens frequently. Third, the fundamentals must be advancing. The implementation of a major transition in holdings requires cooperation with the fundamentals and requires high-frequency trackable data.
Switching should follow four criteria: size, prosperity, valuation, and attributes. Following these four criteria, institutions may switch to undervalued, high-dividend stocks in the future. In terms of size, undervalued stocks involve many traditional industries, accounting for a significant portion of market value and are essential to supporting the index. In terms of prosperity, after a 10-year adjustment, prosperity and fundamentals have returned, but have been overlooked. In terms of valuation, absolute valuation, relative valuation, and historical percentiles are all very low. In terms of attributes, the most scorned types during the Maoning era broke the 18-year low point in November 2022.