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Guotai Junan: Overseas markets may usher in a new round of investment opportunities, highlighting the investment value of cross-border QDII funds.
In 2023, the performance of cross-border QDII funds was impressive, due to effective control of overseas inflation and a market rebound from hitting bottom.
Guotai Junan released a research report stating that the performance of cross-border QDII funds in 2023 is impressive, attributed to effective control of overseas inflation and a market rebound from the bottom. AH shares may experience short-term fluctuations, but investing in cross-border QDII funds with low correlation to the above-mentioned markets may help mitigate portfolio volatility. At the same time, as the tightening cycle in Europe and the United States is nearing its end and expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in the second half of 2024 are rising, overseas markets may see a new round of investment opportunities, highlighting the investment value of cross-border QDII funds. Public offering QDII funds are publicly raised funds established through public channels to invest in overseas stocks, bonds, and other securities through the QDII channel. Guotai Junan defines QDII funds that hold positions in A+H shares and A+H share funds not exceeding 40% as cross-border QDII funds. As of the end of 2023, there were a total of 151 cross-border QDII funds in China with a total scale of approximately 148.5 billion yuan. 1) Classification of cross-border QDII funds: According to the type of assets invested, they can be divided into stocks, mixed, alternative, and bond types. According to the management mode, they can be divided into active and passive management types. According to style and strategy, they can be divided into broad-based, actively selected, industry, thematic, and style types. According to the country, cross-border QDII funds that mainly invest in the US market are currently mainstream. 2) Management and competitive landscape: High concentration among leading institutions. The total scale of the top five managers including GF, Bosera, Guotai, Huaxi, and Huaxia Fund's cross-border QDII funds accounts for 57%. The products of these five institutions are primarily focused on passive stock broad-based types, with investments mainly in developed countries such as Europe and the US, particularly in the US market. 3) Investor structure of cross-border QDII: Individual investors are the main holders of cross-border QDII funds, but since 2019, the proportion held by institutional investors has been increasing, especially in passive stock broad-based products. 4) Management fees of cross-border QDII: Management fees have significantly decreased over the past 10 years, with little change in custodial fees. The management fees of active products are significantly higher than passive products. As of the end of 2023, the management fees in descending order by asset type were mixed, alternative, stock, and bond products. Calculation of QDII investment capacity: 1) Utilization of public offering QDII quotas. Due to the significant increase in European and American stock markets in recent years, the growth of QDII fund sizes comes from both asset appreciation and investor subscriptions. Therefore, if the total scale of QDII managed by a public offering company exceeds the approved quota, it does not necessarily mean that the company's quota is insufficient. It may be due to early issuance of products, significant appreciation of fund assets, and remaining QDII quotas for the company. Further consultation with public offering funds is needed. If the total scale of a certain public offering QDII fund is significantly lower than the approved quota, there is a high likelihood that the remaining QDII investment quota of the public offering is abundant. Southern, Jiashi, Morgan, CICC Global, Fund, and other public funds may have more remaining QDII quotas. 2) Purchasing status of products of interest. If a product is temporarily suspended for large subscriptions or suspended for purchase, it indicates that the remaining investment quota may be insufficient. Risk warning: The conclusions of this report are based solely on publicly available historical data for calculations, and the research and analytical conclusions of fund products and fund managers do not imply future performance, nor do they guarantee sustainability in the future, or constitute a guarantee of investment returns or investment advice. This report does not involve the evaluation of securities investment funds, nor does it involve recommendations for fund products, or recommendations for any index sample stocks.
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