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Nuveen: The Federal Reserve rate cut is imminent, emerging market stocks are expected to perform well this year.
Nuveen suggests that stocks in 2023 that have suffered devaluation will perform well in 2024, such as emerging market stocks and US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) expected to have strong profit growth.
American fund Nuveen released its global market outlook for 2024. Nuveen stated that as the potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve approaches in the second half of 2024, it is expected that US Treasury bond yields will continue to decline slightly, and high-quality fixed income assets will provide return opportunities, especially in municipal bonds and securitized assets. Holding cash may lead to missing out on investment opportunities. The stock market, which saw valuation damage in 2023, is expected to perform well in 2024, particularly emerging market stocks and US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with strong profit growth expected. Nuveen noted that US inflation has clearly peaked, with rent inflation declining for six consecutive months, and believes that core inflation in the US will continue to trend lower. Economic recession risks still exist, with consumer and investment remaining strong, but the current robust demand may only be bringing forward economic activity at the cost of growth next year. The Federal Reserve has already completed its tightening policy, and with slowing growth and a continued soft labor market next year, a rate cut is expected to occur around the middle of the year. While individual investment opportunities exist in global stock markets, Nuveen maintains an overall neutral rating. Positive views on public real estate and infrastructure stocks. In emerging markets, Brazil (positive interest rates and inflation factors) and Mexico (benefiting from nearshoring trend) are considered investment-worthy. The US remains a relatively preferred developed market. Nuveen mentioned in fixed income that there will be no rate cuts in the short term, but bond yields will continue to decline slightly throughout 2024. It is expected that credit spreads for bonds in the first half of 2024 will widen, allowing for an appropriate increase in credit risk. A neutral view is held on investment-grade and high-yield bond markets, with a preference for higher credit quality categories. Despite higher hedging costs, there are significant opportunities for non-US investors in taxable municipal bonds, as well as focus on high-yield categories in the taxable market and categories with special property tax support. There are investment opportunities in real estate bonds, and it is believed that the stock prices of real estate stocks are currently at a low point. Real estate bonds are more attractive relative to real estate stocks, especially considering the expected stable and eventually declining interest rate environment. Positive views on US healthcare institutions and the global senior housing industry, particularly in the US and Japan. Nuveen advises investors to abandon the "60% stocks, 40% bonds" allocation rule and take full advantage of the opportunities provided by alternative investments. The value of public real estate and infrastructure investments should not be overlooked, while private infrastructure development is promising, and agricultural land investments diversify returns.
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