Morgan Asset Management's Liang Peng: The valuations of many industries have reached historically low levels, optimistic about industries such as pig farming and pharmaceuticals.

2024-02-08 21:15

Zhitongcaijing
The valuations of many industries have reached historically low levels, if you still believe in economic recovery, there are many directions to invest in at this position.
Li Peng, of Morgan Asset Management, wrote that currently, some companies in the new energy and food and beverage industries are showing a certain level of cost-effectiveness if they continue to drop. There may be trend opportunities in the pig farming industry. Additionally, the pharmaceutical industry, which has recently hit new lows, also has many companies worth exploring. The valuations of many industries are at historically low levels, so if one still believes in economic recovery, there are many directions to invest in.
It is worth mentioning that Li Peng uses a unique "four-dimensional stock selection method" to evaluate the comprehensive value of a company, focusing on four dimensions: time dimension, corporate investment perspective, expected value comprehensiveness, and market acceptance.
1) Time dimension. This dimension includes the past and the future. It is important not only to understand the company's history, including its growth process and important milestones, but also to assess the company's value from a long-term perspective of the next two to three years, rather than focusing on short-term investment opportunities. In the time dimension, qualitative judgments are mainly made at the company level.
2) Corporate investment perspective. Returning to the essence of investment, regardless of the company being invested in, the key is the return on capital. It is essential to determine whether a company is profitable, and if it is, whether the cash flow can be recovered. The corporate investment perspective focuses on four elements of profitability: profitability, profit certainty, growth, and profit sustainability. By analyzing these four elements, a "anchor" valuation can be determined for the company. This part mainly uses quantitative indicators for analysis and can be verified against the strategic execution mentioned in the company's annual report.
3) Expected value comprehensiveness. Simply put, this refers to the risk-reward ratio of an investment. Li Peng has always pursued the ultimate risk-reward ratio when buying stocks. When considering risks, the lowest historical valuation level is taken into account. Events or factors in history that have brought the company's valuation to its lowest level are considered in assessing the risk, fully understanding the risks involved in buying this company. However, for profit forecasting, Li Peng generally uses neutral assumptions. Only when the risk-reward ratio reaches 3:1 will further consideration be given.
4) Market acceptance. Contrary to popular belief, investors often put themselves in a state of overconfidence, which can sometimes become stubbornness. After learning many lessons, Li Peng understands that a perfect contrarian investment should combine one's own understanding with market consensus.
Li Peng compares the self-awareness formed in the first three dimensions with the market's awareness, fully understanding the logic behind the market's bearish view. Since Li Peng's investments are contrarian, he often looks for assets that have been declining for two to three years, so it is necessary to understand why these assets have been declining for so long and if the negative factors are already fully reflected. What is the logical reason that will reverse the market's viewpoint in the future. A good contrarian investment does not completely disregard the market's perspective based solely on one's own understanding of value.