Schroder Investment Management: Maintains forecast of 'soft landing' for US economy, optimistic about local currency bonds in emerging markets.

2024-02-19 11:16

Zhitongcaijing
Schroder Investment Management released a report stating that after the strong rebound at the end of 2023, various asset valuations in the financial markets appear to be at slightly high levels.
Schroders Global Investment Report states that after experiencing a strong rebound at the end of 2023, the valuations of various assets currently seem to be at slightly high levels. The bank still maintains its baseline prediction that the US economy will achieve a "soft landing," but this situation has largely been reflected in the bond market's expectations of stock market levels, credit spreads, and the extent of interest rate cuts.
In order to embrace new investment opportunities, the market structure is bound to undergo a "reshuffling," and the challenge is naturally the rapidly changing market situation. In 2024, 40 markets will hold elections, and in addition to the tense geopolitical environment, central banks around the world are also in the "landing phase" of achieving economic growth. The aforementioned situations often bring volatility to the market.
Given that cash rates are starting to decline, the bank's advice to investors is to adopt flexible strategies while maintaining their investments in order to navigate different market conditions and seize timely entry opportunities.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, investors were anxious about further interest rate hikes by the Fed, but the bank firmly believes that rates have reached a phase of plateauing. With investors eager to digest the Fed's shift in expectations, three months is already a long time for the bond market.
As the local employment rate in the US is relatively high, the bank expects the Fed not to make significant interest rate cuts. Although inflation is moving in the right direction and wage growth has peaked, discussions about a significant interest rate cut by the Fed still seem premature. Therefore, the bank has sold long bonds from its portfolio and is bullish on assets that will steepen the yield curve, thereby seizing profit opportunities brought about by rate cuts.
Considering the possibility that the Fed may choose to focus on cooling inflation rather than tightening labor conditions, the bank believes that the risk of the US heading into an economic recession is still low. Therefore, the bank views this situation as more favorable for stocks than bonds.
In a broader sense, against the backdrop of the "3D reset," investors must carefully consider the future policy direction. This is influenced to a certain extent by the different conditions faced by various economic systems and the "cards" held by decision-makers. This economic differentiation is expected to bring investment opportunities: many emerging market countries are adopting more orthodox policies, putting their local bond markets in good condition and leaving room for further interest rate cuts. Therefore, Schroders Global is optimistic about local currency bonds in emerging markets.
To escape the long-term deflationary pressures, Japan is still implementing stimulus economic policies, but its high government debt levels may hinder austerity measures.
Due to aging populations and higher energy costs compared to other regions, economic growth in Europe is facing challenges. However, the political systems in Europe are relatively stable, and their conservative fiscal policies are beneficial for European bonds.
With the US dollar enjoying its status as the world's reserve currency, the US is able to implement more economic stimulus policies. Former US President Ronald Reagan once said, "I'm not worried about the deficit, it's big enough to take care of itself." But if President Donald Trump were to be re-elected and engage in reckless fiscal spending, it could erode investors' patience.
Economics, influenced by human behavior, is more like an art than a science. Countries around the world are still dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic while the unstoppable impact of technological change continues. Schroders Global's 3D themes of investment (demographics, deglobalization, and decarbonization) also affect the relationship between economic growth and inflation.
Taking into account the impact of all these factors, the longstanding economic consensus is being challenged. Over the past decade, relying on investment "charts" has been effective, but now the bank needs to resist dependence on this way of doing things. The bank believes that the focus should be on the current economic differentiation and the new investment opportunities that come with it.