The US stock market hit a historic high and Schroder Investment advises investors to stay away: It doesn't make sense to enter the market at historic highs.

2024-02-21 14:12

Zhitongcaijing
Investors may have various valid reasons for not liking to invest in stocks, but the market being at historic highs should not be one of them.
In mid-December 2023, the US stock market hit a new high and continued to rise afterwards. By the end of January 2024, the local stock market had risen nearly 3% from its previous high. Many investors may feel anxious about the possibility of a market downturn. Duncan Lamont, head of Schroders Global Investment Strategy Research Department, pointed out that while it is natural to feel nervous when the stock market reaches record highs, based on past situations, choosing to abandon stock investments when feeling uncomfortable can be detrimental to wealth. Investors may have various legitimate reasons for not liking to invest in stocks, but being at historical highs should not be one of them.
In a high interest rate environment, many investors also shifted to holding more cash in 2023. At a time when the stock market is at historical highs, investors may feel uneasy about the idea of allocating their funds to cash instead.
Duncan Lamont pointed out that, based on analysis of stock market returns data since 1926, the conclusion is: uneasiness is unnecessary. In fact, the occurrence of historical highs in the stock market is more frequent than imagined. Out of 1176 months since January 1926, the stock market hit new highs in 354 months, accounting for 30% of the overall time. On average, the investment return after the stock market hits a historical high for 12 months can outperform inflation by 10.3%, which is better than outperforming 8.6% in other times. The average return over two and three years is also slightly better.
Duncan Lamont pointed out that if $100 was invested in the US stock market in January 1926, by the end of 2023, the value of this investment adjusted for inflation would be $85,008, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 7.1%. In comparison, if one switched to holding cash every time the stock market hit a new high in the previous month, and then returned to the stock market in non-high months, the value of this investment adjusted for inflation at the end of 2023 would only be $8,790, a decrease of 90% compared to consistently investing in stocks. The inflation-adjusted return of this asset portfolio using this strategy is 4.7%. Over time, the cumulative difference in returns can be significant. This study covers data from nearly 100 years, longer than what most people plan for. However, even from a shorter-term perspective, investors who cannot withstand the fear of a rising stock market may miss out on significant potential returns.