Global X: US CPI data in February exceeds expectations, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in June.

2024-03-14 16:47

Zhitongcaijing
Inflation remains a hurdle for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates immediately, as the inflation rate must decrease to the target level of 2% before the Federal Reserve will consider cutting rates. This means that the risks investors face point to the first rate cut happening later than the market's current expectation of June.
In February, US CPI data exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, slightly higher than the estimated 3.1%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 3.8% year-on-year, also surpassing the expected 3.7%. Morgane Delledonne, Head of Investment Strategy at Global X ETFs, pointed out that the unexpected rise in inflation in February surprised the market.
Delledonne further noted that inflation remains a barrier to immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as the inflation rate must decrease to the target level of 2% before the Fed considers cutting rates. This means that investors may face the risk of the timing of the first rate cut being later than the market's current expectation of June.
Powell emphasized that the Fed focuses on three key items in the US Consumer Price Index: food, transportation, and housing inflation, which have the most significant impact on Americans' wealth.
The market may readjust expectations for rate cuts this year, with a potential maximum of three cuts and a decrease in the probability of the first rate cut in June. The pressure on the US dollar against other currencies has increased, reflecting the US economy growing beyond other regions and possibly helping to maintain low import inflation levels. US inflation is now more closely tied to domestic factors, with transportation and housing issues taking a central role.