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Morgan Asset Management: The Fed's expected three interest rate cuts this year will mitigate some market risks.
The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) unchanged expectations for three interest rate cuts this year will help alleviate some of the risks of a slowing or delayed start to the widely anticipated rate-cutting cycle.
After the Federal Reserve meeting, keeping interest rates unchanged as expected, and the dot plot showing that the forecast for a total of 0.75% interest rate cuts this year remains unchanged. Kerry Craig, global market strategist at Morgan Asset Management, said that the Fed's expectations for economic growth, as well as the ongoing decline in inflation, will ease some of the risks of the market's general expectation of a slowdown or delay in the start of the rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Kerry Craig pointed out that data up to now continue to reflect a healthy labor market, overall economic activity is good, and inflation is still in a downward trend, although it may take longer to reach the target. But it is important that the FOMC still maintains a clear bias towards rate cuts. Morgan Asset Management stated that the basic situation is that the Fed will start cutting rates three times from mid-year this year, allowing them time to further assess inflation prospects and be more confident that their predictions of weakening inflation pressures are correct. However, after this year, the policy path becomes narrower, with an expected additional easing of 75 basis points instead of 100 basis points, raising the long-term federal funds rate to 2.6%. This higher long-term view suggests that the US economy can continue to operate at higher interest rate levels than in the past. In addition, the moderate strengthening of the US economy and the decrease in interest rates should be beneficial for Asian markets, as any additional US demand will support the manufacturing cycle, and markets pricing in rate cuts are likely to cause a moderate depreciation of the US dollar and ease currency pressures in Asian markets. This creates an environment in which central banks in the region have room to implement their own loose monetary policies. However, the strong rebound in many stock markets this year, rising valuations, and the still rocky road of US inflation suggest that investors should actively invest in the stock market and focus on areas supported by strong earnings growth.
Daifu global: Japan's loose monetary policy is expected to continue, and the rise in Japanese stocks shows no signs of stopping.
Invesco estimates that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates before the end of the year, which may allow the Japanese stock market to continue its upward trend.
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