Daifu global: Japan's loose monetary policy is expected to continue, and the rise in Japanese stocks shows no signs of stopping.

2024-03-21 11:56

Zhitongcaijing
Chief Investment Officer Shinbara Kensuke of Tokyu Global Investment Management in Japan stated that, because loose policies are expected to be maintained for a period of time, the trends of both the stock market and the currency market will not be affected, and the expectation is that the continued upward trend of the Japanese stock market will not stop.
The Bank of Japan has finally adopted a dual policy adjustment, announcing an increase in the benchmark interest rate from negative to zero to 0.1%, while also canceling the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Kenyasu Shinbara, Chief Investment Officer of Daiwa Global Investment Management in Japan, stated that since the loose policy is expected to be maintained for some time, the direction of the stock market and money market will not be affected, and the expectation that the Japanese stock market will continue to rise will not stop. However, with the forward guidance (especially rate hike speed and terminal rate) becoming unclear, and the cancellation of the YCC policy, Daiwa will closely monitor the situation of long-term interest rate curves of 10 years and above, as well as changes in demand for overseas bond investments.
Shinbara stated that although the Bank of Japan's decision to pay a positive interest rate of 0.1% on all current account deposits exceeded Daiwa's expectations, the change was within expectations, and most of it is already reflected in prices. This change is a reasonable measure to address current economic needs, especially in terms of inflation and wages.
Dwyfor Evans, Head of Macro Strategy for Daiwa Global Markets Asia-Pacific, stated that although the bank has indicated that short-term interest rates will continue to be the main policy tool, in order to allay concerns about the rapid increase in long-term interest rates, the bank will continue to purchase government bonds at the current pace. However, continued government bond purchases, while ostensibly aimed at limiting yield increases, will also limit support for the yen, as the yen remains very sensitive to relative interest rates.