DWS: Gold target price of $5400 in March 2027.

2026-03-17 14:53

Zhitongcaijing
Gold remains an attractive investment, mainly supported by three key factors: First, central banks continue to buy large amounts; second, the continuous expansion of the money supply, high liquidity typically benefits gold demand; third, loose monetary policies have led to persistently declining interest rates. The target price for an ounce of gold in March 2027 is $5400.
Recently, DWS released its market outlook for March 2026, with DWS Global Chief Investment Officer Vincenzo Vedda stating that gold remains an attractive investment, supported mainly by three key factors: first, continued large purchases by central banks; second, continuous expansion of money supply, with high liquidity usually favorable for gold demand; and third, loose monetary policies leading to continuous decreases in interest rates. The target price for gold per ounce in March 2027 is $5400.
Vincenzo Vedda pointed out that the escalating tensions in the Middle East may not seem like an ideal backdrop for optimism in the capital markets. However, despite the recent attacks on Iran undoubtedly raising geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the bank maintains a positive outlook, based on two key assumptions: first, that the conflict with Iran will not escalate into a broader regional conflict, and second, that oil prices will not remain above $90 per barrel.
Vedda stated that in the face of the current environment, it is especially important to have a broadly diversified asset allocation to manage risks. He believes that with moderate to robust economic growth expectations and favorable interest rate environments, the outlook for the stock market remains steady. In developed markets, corporate earnings growth is expected to range between 6% and 12%, while emerging markets may see earnings growth as high as 20%. From an interest rate perspective, he anticipates minimal resistance currently and believes that the risk of the 10-year Treasury yield in the United States remaining above 4.5% is low.
Vedda added that the bank continues to hold a fundamentally positive view on artificial intelligence (AI), while also acknowledging the possibility of negative developments. Earlier this year, concerns related to AI triggered significant sector rotations in the stock market, with more traditional industries regaining investor focus.
Vedda explained that these sector rotations have had a substantial impact on the regions the bank currently favors. Currently, DWS prefers the European and Japanese stock markets with lower weights of technology stocks over the US stock market. The valuation discounts in these two regions compared to the US are expected to gradually narrow as many investors seek greater geographic diversification.
Despite multiple uncertainties, the US economy is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 2.3% this year. The European economy is forecasted to expand by 1.3%, with Germany's growth rate expected to rebound to 1.2% (from 0.3% in 2025).
Vedda mentioned that the uncertainty in US inflation has made the outlook for monetary policy more complex. However, DWS expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the next 12 months, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.25%. For the Eurozone, the bank expects the policy rate environment to remain stable, with little likelihood of further rate cuts. If military conflicts involving Iran lead to significant and sustained inflation, the possibility of rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
With geopolitical conflicts continuing to arise and the financial environment becoming increasingly unstable, economic development and capital markets face higher risks. A significant increase in energy prices may drag down economic growth in Europe and Germany, while a significant strengthening of the US dollar may suppress the expected recovery in emerging markets.
The premium in US stock markets compared to markets like Europe or Japan seems to have peaked, indicating a gradual decrease in relative attractiveness. However, with continued growth in corporate earnings and the ongoing trend of AI development, DWS remains optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects for the US stock market. The bank's target for the S&P 500 index in March 2027 is 7500 points. Additionally, it is expected that the 10-year US Treasury yield will decrease in the next 12 months, with a projected yield of 4.0% in March 2027.
Furthermore, DWS believes that the recent strength of the US dollar against the Euro following the US attacks on Iran is unlikely to persist. In the medium to long term, as investors continue to diversify away from the US dollar, the dollar may weaken again. The projected Euro/US dollar exchange rate in March 2027 is 1.20.