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Purish: Still sees gold as a strategic allocation, short-term price trends may remain volatile.
Pillar said that it still considers gold as a strategic allocation. Structural demands from central banks in various countries, along with uncertain policy outlook, provide some support to gold prices, even though short-term price trends may remain volatile.
In the midst of a changing macro environment and renewed volatility in the gold market, Matt Bance, strategist and portfolio manager of Plaisirs' multi-asset solution, said that from an investment perspective, gold is still seen as a strategic allocation. Structural demand from central banks around the world, combined with uncertain policy prospects, provides some support for gold prices, even though short-term price trends may continue to be volatile. Plaisirs pointed out that after the attack in Iran, gold prices briefly saw a typical safe-haven rally, but the rally was not sustained as the market quickly reinterpreted the nature of the event. Investors did not view it as a continuous geopolitical shock, but rather as an inflation event driven by energy prices. This shift has boosted real interest rates, strengthened the US dollar, and weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, all of which are negative for gold prices. At the same time, market positioning also played a role. Gold prices had already accumulated significant gains before the event, limiting the space for new safe-haven inflows. Instead, investors took advantage of market volatility to profit-taking and reduced their exposure to assets that had previously performed strongly. Looking ahead, the movement of gold prices will continue to be influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real interest rates and central bank policy expectations will be crucial, as well as monitoring energy prices and the movement of the US dollar. If energy shocks continue or worsen, it may push the market towards a stagflation environment, which historically has been relatively favorable for gold prices.
Virtue Fund: Iran Conflict Increases Market Uncertainty, Hong Kong Stocks Have Relative Resilience
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