Barclays Research Team has published a global economic outlook report, indicating that amidst geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and risks in private credit, the global economy continues to show resilience, mainly benefiting from strong investment cycles and profit growth driven by artificial intelligence. Barclays stated that in the first quarter of this year, the market's concerns focused on geopolitical conflicts, oil, private credit, and capital expenditure on artificial intelligence. Although front-end rates of US Treasury bonds rapidly repriced last week, asset prices have remained relatively stable so far, in line with expectations that the current conflicts may gradually dissipate in the coming weeks. Under Barclays' baseline assumptions, a US-Iran military conflict would have a greater impact on inflation rather than economic growth. Assuming future trends in oil prices materialize, global economic growth is expected to face some pressure but overall should remain resilient, with global economic growth expected to be around 3% this year. In comparison, the US economy's ability to withstand shocks is significantly stronger than that of the highly energy-dependent economies of Europe and Asia, with one important reason being the expectation that the Federal Reserve will "selectively ignore" short-term inflation pressures and not overreact. Under the baseline assumption (i.e. conflicts gradually de-escalate, Brent crude oil averaging about $85/barrel), the bank forecasts that global economic growth will still maintain at 3% in 2026. For a world economy that was expected to gradually move past the impact of last year's trade wars, this performance is only considered moderate. However, this result may still exceed the expectations of some investors. One key support is the US economy - even if oil prices average around $85/barrel in 2026, its impact on US economic growth is still quite limited. The report also points out that Europe will face more significant impacts. Current expectations suggest that the growth trajectory of Europe's real GDP will slow down, overall inflation and core inflation levels will continue to rise, and government fiscal deficits will further expand. Barclays has revised down its year-on-year economic growth forecast for Europe in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 0.7% and to 1.2% in 2027 (previously both were 1.2%). Major Asian economies, including China, India, and Japan, will also be affected. However, these countries are actively communicating and coordinating with Iran to ensure their vessels can pass smoothly through the Strait of Hormuz. To date, despite tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, there has not been a substantial change in Iran's crude oil supply to China. China's refined oil price mechanism has to some extent buffered the transmission effects of rising international oil prices; at the same time, lower oil and gas dependency, as well as the continued increase in renewable energy and electrification levels, have also enhanced the overall resilience of the Chinese economy. Additionally, China has around 1.2 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves to serve as an essential risk buffer. There are indeed some structural issues in the US private credit sector, with the software industry being particularly prominent. However, the bank believes that such risks are more likely to manifest in a slow cumulative manner, without systemic features, and are unlikely to cause substantial impacts on the US macroeconomic trends in 2026. The impact is more akin to the market's concerns about Commercial Real Estate (CRE) in 2023, which did not trigger macro-level consequences and still significantly differs from the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Since the beginning of this quarter, global markets have been under pressure due to energy shocks resulting from conflicts in the Middle East, with both stock and bond markets being affected. This shock coincides with a phase of profit growth driven by AI. Investors should focus on structural "winners" while hedging against short-term macro and policy risks. Barclays' current baseline assumption is that the most extreme scenarios will not occur, just like the trade issues in 2025. Although long-term impacts may still exist, once the situation substantially eases, the market will likely choose to look forward. Despite continuous negative news in geopolitics, oil prices, and credit sectors, Barclays still maintains its overweight position on US stocks rather than European stocks.