Schroder Investment: Middle East conflict prompts market to reevaluate energy prices early or as the beginning of a long-term energy investment cycle.

2026-03-30 15:30

Zhitongcaijing
On the one hand, the supply of oil, natural gas, and even electricity markets are all restricted; on the other hand, the demand continues to expand.
Schroders Global Resources Equity Manager Mark Lacey believes that the oil market is already tightening, and he expects a similar situation in the natural gas market in the next three to four years. About 20% of global oil and a large amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently blocked, causing a severe supply shock. This conflict is prompting an early reassessment of energy prices in the market. This marks the beginning of a longer-term energy investment cycle, with impacts across various energy markets. On one hand, the supply of oil, natural gas, and electricity markets is restricted; on the other hand, demand continues to expand.
The current oil prices are reflecting a market with long-term underinvestment and experiencing a supply shock. It is expected that U.S. electricity demand will grow annually by about 2% to 3% for a considerable period of time. One of the reasons for this is the decarbonization process in industries such as transportation and heating. Additionally, data centers powered by artificial intelligence will also become an independent and growing source of demand. Increasing new energy supply not only requires prices to be maintained at supportive levels, but also involves longer development cycles lasting several years. For oil producers' stocks, restricted oil supply, coupled with lagging responses and strengthening demand, will provide more sustained support for prices.