On February 28th, the sudden outbreak of the US-Iran war became a large "black swan" event that impacted the market in 2026. It changed the good market trend since the beginning of the year and ushered in the first decent "intermediate adjustment" since 2025. In response to this, Kuozhiwei, director of Reyang Investment War Research Department, fund managers Tan Wei, Zhuang Da, Chen Fentao, and Zhao Yang conducted an analysis. The most intense phase of the conflict may have passed and the future may see a gradual opening of windows for ceasefire and negotiations. Kuozhiwei predicts that the end of the US-Iran conflict may happen relatively quickly or even in a rather dramatic way. Although the military actions by the US and Israel against Iran seem relatively successful, they have not achieved their strategic objectives, and the key issue now is how to wrap it up. The market concern is whether Trump will back down at the last minute again ("Trump Always Chickens Out"), and whether the new leader of Iran will agree to a ceasefire. Kuozhiwei is relatively optimistic about both of these issues. Many people believe that the US-Iran conflict could be similar to the 1956 Suez Crisis, in that it involves whether the US can maintain its military and petrodollar hegemony globally, and therefore the US cannot afford to fail. However, the current problem is whether the US's continued gamble in the short to medium term has any significance? Trump is fundamentally a businessman and cannot be pigeonholed with the mindset of a regular politician or strategist; the grand narrative of American hegemony is far less important to Trump than his own interests in the midterm elections. At the same time, he also believes that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps should not be treated as Islamic jihadists like Hamas. Multiple analyses have shown that the Revolutionary Guard is not just a military force but also a large business organization. And when its value is highlighted, it serves the dual interests of the organization and its newly promoted leadership. After Trump sent clear signals for negotiations and even proposed a ceasefire for a month, he believes that the biggest impact on the financial market may have already passed. Tan Wei is also optimistic about the direction of the war. The most intense phase of the conflict may have passed, and the future could see a gradual opening of windows for ceasefire and negotiations. The core logic of this judgment lies in two points. Firstly, a prolonged war is not in the interests of the US. Trump's midterm elections and the impact of sustained high oil prices on the US economy and inflation make the US eager to end the war quickly. Secondly, a prolonged war is unbearable for Iran. Compared to the US, Iran's national strength is significantly weaker, and the Strait of Hormuz concerns the interests of most countries globally, so Iran cannot afford to antagonize the world. Based on these two points, both the US and Iran have a demand to de-escalate the war as soon as possible. Zhuang Da has a different view. Currently, the situation has not yet eased, as the market underestimated Iran's military strength and determination to resist. Evaluating the potential risks of US ground forces landing in combat is essential. If the US cannot withdraw promptly, Trump will face increasing domestic political, economic, and popular pressure. Therefore, it is possible that he will unilaterally declare the completion of strategic objectives by finding a way out, but this is unlikely to happen in the short term. Even if all parties engage in negotiations, it will be difficult for the Strait of Hormuz to fully return to its pre-war status, and the world needs to prepare for higher oil prices. Dealing with the "black swan event" This shock has caused a significant market decline in the short term. Regarding the response to such "black swan events," Tan Wei states that facing a "black swan event," his approach is to return to common sense, analyze how the event will affect the overall economy, especially the intrinsic value of the listed companies he holds. The answer often falls into two categories. The first is when the event has minimal impact on the economy and related listed companies and is more about disturbing investor sentiment, he sees this event's market impact as a good buying opportunity. Of course, if his stock position is already high, he chooses to hold patiently, at least not selling because of the event. The second possibility is when there is an adverse impact on the economy, particularly on the listed companies he holds, he will adjust the company's profit forecasts and calculate valuation based on the revised earnings. It is important to note that although profits have been reduced, the stock price may have already declined significantly, even more than the reduction in profits, making the stock no less attractive. The best response is to anticipate these events beforehand, but candidly speaking, they often lack this ability. At the very least, they should not sell after the stock price has already factored in all negative aspects. Chen Fentao strongly agrees with Tan Wei's views. He adds that the capital market is full of uncertainty, and frequent "black swan events" remind every investor in it to respect the market. Faced with this uncertainty, the best thing investors can do is to build an investment portfolio with a safety margin. For him, considering the probability of each target losing money in a pessimistic scenario and whether the potential losses are controllable is the most crucial aspect to building an investment portfolio. Based on having constructed a portfolio with a safety margin beforehand, when sudden "black swan events" occur, they will reassess the investment logic of each target in the portfolio, recalculating the expected returns for each target, to avoid irreversible situations. Behind every "danger" often lies an "opportunity". As they focus on defense, they also leverage teamwork to seize potential opportunities in the market that may have been overlooked. Zhao Yang believes that although different "black swan events" inherently have randomness, their impact on the market and the transmission paths of risk differ and require specific analysis. They need to determine whether the impact on the market and the companies in their portfolio is substantial, and whether the pricing is pessimistic enough to decide on the subsequent strategy. This recent shock may lead to global inflation, supply chain disruption, and a decline in investor risk appetite in the short term. The Chinese market is also impacted, but in the long termChina may actually benefit in the end, so it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic.the A-share "slow bull" pattern has not changed Zhao Yang pointed out that the overall performance of the market in the first quarter was high at the beginning and low at the end. The year started with a continuation of the upward trend, resonating to a certain extent with other global markets. Excluding the impact of the US-Iran war on the market, the overall structural market in the first quarter was not as extreme as in the second half of last year, with the momentum of tech stocks, which had seen huge gains, weakening. Sectors like real estate and consumption, which are typically weak in the early part of the year, received some degree of investor attention in the market environment at the beginning of the year and showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding in their trends. Overall, compared to 2025, the market's narrative is no longer singular, and investors are beginning to seriously evaluate the future expectations implied in different industries, looking for opportunities in undervalued sectors. As for his personal portfolio construction, because he has always adhered to a contrarian style, the allocation in undervalued industries benefited from the changes in the market structure at the beginning of the year, resulting in relatively good performance. However, on the other hand, Hong Kong stocks, which were already undervalued, continued to underperform major global indexes, putting some pressure on the portfolio. Tan Wei largely agrees with Zhao Yang's views. In the first quarter, there were subtle changes compared to the second half of last year, mainly in the slowing down of the momentum of the tech stocks and the opportunities in the market structure shifting to other sectors. Many of these sectors are pro-cyclical, especially those with pricing logic. This indicates that investors are beginning to explore opportunities in a broader range of areas. His investment strategy in the first quarter was mainly to observe more and act less. Starting from the end of last year and based on contrarian investment principles, he mostly avoided investing in overheated sectors like AI hardware and non-ferrous metals, instead favoring many stocks with low market attention. Some of these stocks had some gains in the first quarter, but they are still far from his expectations of their fair value, so he did not sell. Later, when the market experienced an overall retreat, these stocks were inevitably affected, but he believes that this kind of retreat is healthy and controllable. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, he is confident in his current portfolio. Zhuang Da said that due to the relative closed nature of the A-share market and the presence of long-term funds, the market showed a certain resilience in the first quarter, while the Hong Kong stock market, as a more open market, experienced larger adjustments, with the Middle East situation having a significant impact on the structural market trends. Looking at the industry breakdown, the upstream industries benefited from the surge in oil prices, while other sectors did not perform exceptionally well, with some experiencing large adjustments. Since the beginning of the year, he has maintained a certain flexibility in his positions within the range guided by the investment decision meetings. He still has room to further increase positions on dips. In terms of structure, he mainly focuses on diversified technology and domestic demand sectors, with a certain exposure to Hong Kong stocks, but without timely allocation to safe-haven sectors, which has resulted in some impact on the portfolio. Investment still looks to the future, and short-term stock performance should not affect investment decisions. With the disclosure of annual and quarterly reports, a thorough analysis of the competitiveness and performance prospects of the assets in the portfolio can be conducted; going forward, attention should also be paid to sectors that lead the recovery process in the market bottoming out, as they often become winners in the subsequent structural market trends. Looking ahead to the second quarter, in the Chinese market, Kou Zhiwei believes that the overall "slow bull" pattern has not changed. Since March, the A-share market has experienced its first moderate-level adjustment since the trade war last year. Major market indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the SSE Composite Index have experienced maximum declines of around 10% from their highs to lows, with small and medium-sized cap stocks experiencing even larger declines. On March 23, the market saw a indiscriminate decline, with even stable state-owned large banks experiencing drops of around 4%, indicating a short-term liquidity shock in the market. He believes that such adjustments are very healthy, even beneficial. After experiencing such a magnitude of adjustment, the market's internal stability tends to strengthen. With the cooling of global geopolitical tensions, the most fearful time for the A-share market should be over, and the "slow bull" trend is expected to continue. At the same time, he believes that the structural risks of the market have not been completely released. With the continuous growth of quantitative strategies, there is an increasing demand for market trading volume, especially for retail liquidity. When market trading volume is insufficient to support the scale of quantitative strategies, the sectors concentrated by quantitative strategies will face greater risks. Tan Wei pointed out that a short-term "fast bear" market has actually strengthened his conviction in the long-term "slow bull" trend. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the market saw a "seventeen-day rally," with the risk of the "slow bull" evolving into a "fast bull" increasing. How to slow down? There must be an adjustment. After the adjustment, the market subsequently has even greater upside potential. In terms of the main factors affecting the market, the logic of the "slow bull" in the Chinese stock market has not been disrupted. First, the trend of China's economic restructuring and upgrading remains unchanged. Although the turmoil in the Middle East has had a certain impact on China's raw material costs and export expectations, this impact is controllable. The stability, security, and resilience displayed in this turmoil further highlight China's role in the global industrial chain. Second, the "asset shortage" pattern in a low-interest rate environment in China continues, with the attractiveness of stocks as assets increasing for long-term funds after the adjustment. The logic of the overall societal funds allocation to equity assets will not change. Zhuang Da and Tan Wei hold similar views. A-shares have lacked significant adjustments since April last year, and the impact of external factors has not changed the "slow bull" pattern, instead creating better buying opportunities for long-term funds, for the following reasons: 1) they judged previously that the main factors supporting the "slow bull" are the economic structural transformation and the asset shortage, both of which have not undergone any changes so far; 2) in the short to medium term, the higher energy prices have different impacts on the profitability of downstream and midstream sectors and also prompt the advantaged enterprises in industries where competitiveness has improved significantly to reassess their pricing power, leading to effective price increases, helping to speed up industry consolidation and support further profit growth, which is the micro basis of the "slow bull" trend. Chen Fentai also believes that the "slow bull" pattern is still in place for three main reasons: First, the A-share market is relatively closed, with the impact of external shocks being relatively controllable. At the same time, regulators hope to enhance the internal stability of the stock market, and the introduction of the "Financial Law" provides legal basis for the "national team" to intervene in the stock market once again. Therefore, the probability of a systemic large adjustment in the A-share market is low. Second, the supply and demand for high-quality stocks in A-shares and H-shares are still relatively abundant. On the supply side, they see thatThere are still many high-quality assets with dividend yields exceeding 5% that have not performed in the early stages; on the demand side, the continued downturn in the real estate market has brought low interest rates and asset shortages. In this context, the reallocation of assets by residents and financial institutions will bring stable and continuous incremental funds to these high-quality equity assets.Third, they saw a recovery trend in the economies of other countries in January and February, characterized by a positive trend of "strong production, rebounding investment, and rising consumption." In particular, the decline in real estate investment has narrowed, housing price data has slightly improved, with real estate still being the biggest drag on economic data, but there are signs of improvement in January and February this year. The stabilization of the economy and the significant easing of deflation also mean that high-quality companies that have not seen gains before have potential opportunities. Regarding specific investments, Tan Wei stated that since the third quarter of last year, he gradually shifted his portfolio towards stocks that had stagnated, as the technology stocks and resource stocks had seen too much of an increase in price, making it difficult for them to meet his requirements in terms of value for money. The recent turmoil in the Middle East may trigger a shift in market styles, leading to structural opportunities displaying different characteristics from last year. Specifically, the increase in global inflation expectations due to the Iran war might not be temporary, affecting the monetary policy orientation of various countries and the global liquidity environment. Logically, this marginal change is unfavorable for technology stocks and small-cap stocks, limiting the further expansion of their valuations. Profit expectations for these popular sectors are already high, making further increase difficult, so he is concerned that an excessively crowded trading structure may trigger the release of structural risks. Instead, the impact of the above events might actually be positive for certain "real assets," especially in areas where the competitive landscape has improved significantly and there is potential for price increases. If last year's market theme was dominated by the "virtual economy" of the technology sector, this year might see a shift to the logic of price increase dominated by "real assets." Chen Fentao stated that in the short term, geopolitical uncertainties still exist, with some sectors overall having high valuations and crowding levels, suggesting the possibility of structural adjustments in the market. However, in the medium term, as mentioned earlier, the pattern of a slow bull market remains, with a low probability of significant systemic adjustments, providing various structural opportunities worth exploring in the market. Therefore, at the current point in time, they will focus on opportunities in the following two directions: 1) potential high-yielding stocks with good competitive landscapes and increased shareholder returns. These companies usually imply bullish options on economic recovery beyond expectations. 2) High-quality companies in the broad technology and advanced manufacturing sectors related to high-quality development and industrial upgrading. These companies are the engines driving economic transformation and upgrading, and are the directions they will continue to focus on. However, considering the significant increase in valuations in the technology sector earlier on, they will need to find companies with alpha, such as those that provide high dividend yield protection and potential for AI applications. Zhuang Da personally prefers to look for structural opportunities in companies that have had limited price increases in the past year and a half, where valuations are continuously falling, performance is expected to be poor, and shareholder returns are at a relatively high level. If these companies experience further adjustments due to external factors in the short term, he will consider seizing the opportunity to increase his position. The main types of companies that need to be avoided or reduce position in are: those which have experienced significant increase in prices due to the war in the short term, and those that face an increasing risk of performance decline in the medium term. Zhao Yang believes that considering the ongoing evolution of war risks, there is still significant uncertainty, and the short-term impact on the market is not just a decrease in risk appetite. If global inflation rises, they might face a market style shift and widespread profit downgrades for the future. Therefore, the main direction for portfolio adjustment remains toward low-valuation, resilient high-quality companies, seeking more protection in terms of valuation and certainty. Hong Kong stocks have been significantly impacted by global liquidity in the short term, but larger opportunities may be brewing in the medium term Regarding Hong Kong stocks, Kou Zhiwei stated that the Hang Seng Technology Index is a very important sector in Hong Kong stocks, but Hong Kong stocks are not equivalent to the Hang Seng Technology Index. Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the Hang Seng Index has been significantly better than that of the Hang Seng Technology Index, especially as sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, resources, consumption, and finance in Hong Kong stocks offer investment opportunities. More and more A-share manufacturing companies are also listed on the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, the weakness in the stock prices of internet platforms is the result of various factors, including industry consolidation, increased AI investments, and other factors. In the medium term, he believes this is a very good opportunity for observation and positioning. If they believe that AI will fundamentally change the way society produces, organizes, and reshapes everyone's way of socializing and shopping. For domestic internet platforms, this might be an opportunity for a reshuffle. He believes new players will enter the market, and existing players may gain a larger market share through AI. The current market valuations have already priced in the pains of AI, and what they need to focus on more is which companies can emerge as winners in the AI competition. At the same time, they do not rule out "old-fashioned" companies that are not actively investing in AI. If these companies can maintain their competitive advantages and are willing to return profits to shareholders, their current valuations are also very attractive. Zhao Yang believes that the underperformance of Hang Seng Technology is due to multiple reasons: firstly, the so-called AI losers, market concerns that these companies' future business models may be disrupted under the narrative of "AI eats everything," and the relatively lagging AI investment and model performance of index-weighted companies, which has strengthened the market narrative, leading to the term "old-fashioned technology." Secondly, under the influence of the heat of investment in AI-related hardware infrastructure, global funds, especially those focused on Asia, have significantly flowed into Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese stocks since the last quarter of last year, rather than Hong Kong stocks. Thirdly, after two years of profit recovery, the major components of Hang Seng Technology are facing their own pressures this year. For example, internet companies are facing regulatory pressures and internal competition, automotive companies face deteriorating structures and price wars, consumer electronics companies face upstream price increases leading to a decline in demand. However, as market valuations in the Hong Kong stock market continue to be compressed, he believes that investment opportunities are quietly unfolding. AI is a long-term industrial trend, not a short-term race. AI is still in its early stages of technological adoption rather than a period of established industry maturity. Therefore, there will be many changes, and the narrative of "AI eats everything" has been overly extrapolated. Taking Google in the U.S. as an example, Google Brain completed original research on large models, holding significant funding and a deep talent pool, yet continues to lag behind with the debut of ChatGPT. The market has also doubted Google's execution capabilities, believing that AI will disrupt Google's search business model. Google has experienced multiple downturns in valuation phases.Continuous contraction until the iterative update of Gemini, allowing Google to once again take the lead in various aspects such as models, hardware computing power, cloud services, and applications, being viewed by the market as the most certain winner of the AI era.In addition, even for "Olden Technology", considering factors such as growth potential, shareholder returns, absolute valuation levels, and moat, as long as it remains attractive, it is still a very good investment target. Zhuang Da believes that the short-term impact of global liquidity on the Hong Kong stock market is relatively large, but there may be major opportunities brewing in the medium term. On the one hand, with representative sectors of the Hong Kong stock market such as technology and healthcare adjusting by 30%, the valuations of leading companies have already adjusted to a very reasonable level, with limited further downside potential; on the other hand, with changes in the Middle East situation, global investors will gradually recognize China's unique geopolitical environmental advantages, and the Hong Kong stock market is very likely to be favored by global funds once again.