Fidelity International: Market volatility intensifies in the second quarter, optimistic about long-term opportunities in AI infrastructure sector, cautious selection of software stocks.

2026-04-14 16:55

Zhitongcaijing
The challenge in the market in the second quarter of this year is not whether the economy is entering a recession, but rather the intensification of volatility due to multiple risks fermenting simultaneously, requiring a shift in investment strategy towards structural allocation.
Fidelity International Fund Manager Zhang Yuxiang pointed out that with a substantial increase in capital expenditures, the market is showing significant differentiation. Some companies are benefiting from the AI investment dividend, while others are facing cash flow pressure and business model adjustments, leading to a K-shaped development. Therefore, selecting companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages will be crucial. He is optimistic about long-term opportunities in the infrastructure sectors such as semiconductors, storage equipment, and power grids. In the software sector, stock selection should be cautious, focusing on companies with unique data advantages or strong regulatory connections, as they are more likely to succeed in the AI transformation.
He stated that the challenge in the second quarter of this year is not whether the economy is entering a recession, but rather the intensification of volatility due to multiple risks fermenting simultaneously, requiring a shift towards structural allocation in investment strategy. The duration of geopolitical conflicts may be longer than initially anticipated by the market, but the overall situation is expected to gradually cool down. However, due to infrastructure damage and stock replenishment demands in various countries, oil prices are unlikely to quickly decline, expected to remain in the range of $80 to $90 per barrel, significantly higher than the previous level of around $60 per barrel, which could increase inflation risks.
Furthermore, concerns about stop-go inflation are rising, with central bank policy paths diverging worldwide. Overall, until the situation regarding conflicts and energy supply becomes clearer, major central banks are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with policy uncertainties affecting continued market volatility.
In the face of increased uncertainty about inflation and growth, Zhang Yuxiang suggests that portfolios should moderately include cash, US dollars, short-term inflation-linked bonds, and commodities to enhance defensive capabilities. In terms of bond allocation, high-yield bonds offer yield advantages but should prioritize stable income; investment-grade bonds can provide stable support during market fluctuations. Additionally, recent market pullbacks have led to a decline in valuations of some Asian stock markets and AI-related sectors, presenting opportunities for medium to long-term positioning. The rising issue of energy security has also brought to light the long-term investment value of renewable energy and related industries.