Gregor MA Hirt, Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Asset Investments at Allianz, analyses that the US dollar has re-established its safe-haven status in the short term and is benefiting from the rise in energy prices. With the US becoming a major net exporter of oil, higher energy prices often improve the US trade conditions relative to other economies and may tighten the global financial environment, providing short-term support for the US dollar. In addition, the US dollar is also being driven by arbitrage trading as investors allocate based on the higher expected interest rates in the US compared to other major economies. In the medium to long term, Allianz Investment still maintains its view of a weakening US dollar, mainly reflecting rising fiscal pressures in the US and a trend of global investors gradually reducing their dependence on US assets. Amid continued geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, the traditional relationship between the US dollar, oil, and gold the three core macro assets is undergoing significant changes, reflecting the market's vulnerability and complexity in a highly uncertain environment. Traditionally, the US dollar and oil prices tend to have an inverse relationship, meaning when the dollar strengthens, oil prices tend to fall, and vice versa. However, since the conflict erupted, both the US dollar and oil prices have been rising. At the same time, the traditionally inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold has further strengthened, with gold prices falling as the dollar rises. These trends are distinct from the market dynamics before the conflict, when the US dollar was weak for a long time and gold prices continued to rise. Hirt highlights that geopolitical shocks are interacting with deeper structural shifts in the global economy, altering the market forces that drive gold, oil, and the US dollar. He states that oil has become a highly reflective asset of geopolitical supply risks. Oil prices have risen by about 60% accumulatively in March this year, reflecting market concerns about the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the significant supply threat posed by interruptions in energy supplies in the Middle East. The sharp rise in energy prices also pushes up global inflation pressures, further consolidating the basis for high oil prices. Conversely, the market positioning of gold is currently undergoing a test. Hirt points out that in the short term, gold's performance is closer to that of tactical assets, with its trends being more sensitive to changes in liquidity, interest rates, and market positioning changes, even more so than geopolitical risks. In recent periods of rapidly narrowing correlations, the price of gold has declined along with other traditional safe-haven assets (including stocks and bonds). This reflects investors taking profits after significant increases in gold prices, as well as the possibility of some central banks selling gold, expectations of interest rate hikes to hedge against energy inflation increasing, pushing up bond yields and making fixed-income assets relatively more attractive than gold in the short term. Hirt adds that in an environment of simultaneous volatility in currency, commodity, and stock markets, short-term price trends are increasingly influenced by capital flows and portfolio allocations, with fundamental factors being equally important. He advises investors to look beyond short-term market noise and consider more sustainable influencing factors from a medium-term perspective. In terms of asset allocation, Allianz Investment maintains a cautiously optimistic view of commodities (including oil), believing that the continued high risk premium will help them play a hedging role in investment portfolios, and the duration of ongoing supply disruptions will be crucial in determining whether oil prices can remain elevated. On the currency side, Allianz Investment continues to maintain its view of a medium-term weakening US dollar, mainly reflecting rising fiscal pressures in the US and a trend of global investors gradually reducing their dependence on US assets. Hirt emphasizes that although short-term market trends are supporting the US dollar, these positive factors may not be sustainable, so maintaining tactical flexibility in currency allocation remains crucial. For non-US investors, holding a certain amount of US dollar assets at this stage can help cushion market volatility, especially in the context of a more vulnerable European economy and a weaker Euro. As for gold, Allianz Investment believes that the medium-term outlook is still supported by several structural factors, including central bank demand, concerns about fiscal sustainability, and the trend of de-dollarization, while also benefiting from a medium-term decline in the US dollar, falling real interest rates, and retail investment demand. In the short term, investors are advised to closely monitor retail fund flows, changes in gold ETFs, and technical indicators to evaluate more attractive options for redeployment. Overall, the recent "reshuffling" in the market once again reminds investors not to take existing asset relationships for granted. Geopolitical shocks are interacting with structural changes, reshaping the logic of market operations, and further emphasizing the necessity of tactical flexibility. Investors need to focus on enhancing the resilience of their investment portfolios rather than relying solely on historical correlations to make decisions.