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Raymond Chen, of Ruiyuan Fund, stated that the current A-share market environment has significantly improved, and he remains steadfast in value investing.
Chen Guangming, founder of Ruiyuan Fund, said that faced with market uncertainty, he still firmly believes in value investing.
Founder of Ruiyuan Fund, Chen Guangming, stated that in the face of market uncertainty, he remains committed to value investing. He believes that the current A-share market environment has significantly improved, and the undervaluation of the stock market largely reflects the challenges faced by China in the present and foreseeable future, especially in the Hong Kong market dominated by overseas investors. Over time, the law of value will gradually come into effect. Chen Guangming pointed out that long-term funds in the domestic market are still relatively lacking, and the introduction of long-term capital is still a long way off. The market uncertainty is high, and the intrinsic value of companies is prone to change, making it easier to make mistakes. The equity culture is relatively insufficient, and there are relatively few means of protecting value. In addition, the domestic market experiences greater volatility, which is not only related to the structure of investors but also because the characteristics of the financing market in the domestic market are greater than those of the investment market. In comparison, dividends and share buybacks in overseas markets are larger, and the situation in the domestic market is already showing clear signs of improvement. Furthermore, more obvious economic fundamentals and policy cycles are also some of the reasons for the high volatility in the domestic market. Chen Guangming said that the current valuation level of the Chinese stock market is the lowest since Japan experienced a bubble burst more than 20 years ago. Profits will not significantly decrease, and based on good governance structure and no reckless spending, with profits not showing major fluctuations, even if the valuation does not increase, a static return rate of over 10% is achievable at six or seven times valuation. Economic growth and stock market performance are not necessarily in sync. Therefore, one should not be swayed by macro themes and blindly believe in them. Chen Guangming pointed out that currently, expectations for the future are not high, with a tendency to avoid risks. The popularity of three-year and five-year fixed deposits in the market, as well as the rapid decline in the yield of 3-year and 50-year government bonds, all reflect this pessimistic outlook. From the perspective of cyclical changes, the capital market is currently extremely risk-averse, pushing valuations to such low levels. He stated that in reality, the economy moves forward amidst doubt. Although there is still pressure in the real estate sector, the drop in sales of new homes is significant, and there are signs of decoupling between consumption and real estate, while exports remain resilient. In summary, the low valuation of the stock market to a large extent already reflects the challenges China faces in the present and foreseeable future, especially in the Hong Kong market dominated by overseas investors. The low valuation of overseas Chinese assets is also significantly influenced by Sino-US relations, but with Chinese companies increasing their shareholder return plans, the companies themselves become the largest buyers of their own stocks. Over time, the law of value investing will gradually take effect. Regarding the current A-share market, Chen Guangming stated that there are four main characteristics. Firstly, valuations are lower. When everyone thinks things are a foregone conclusion, changes may already be brewing. Secondly, the source of returns is changing. If valuations are at six or seven times, theoretically, even without considering growth, the returns are in the double digits. Thirdly, the investment environment is better than before, focusing more on shareholder returns, including policy support and various factors, although there are fewer reinvestment opportunities. Fourth, value investing is still not fiercely competitive, as changing the structure of investors and introducing long-term funds remain challenging, leaving space for those who truly practice value investing. Chen Guangming pointed out that value investing is based on a long-term perspective, where evaluation is conducted, and if the price is significantly lower than the intrinsic value of the company, one should buy, and sell if it is the opposite, with the goal of earning the company's free cash flow. In terms of how to practice value investing, one should always remember valuation, as cheap is the basic rule. The valuation referred to here is not static valuation, but the future free cash flow of the company; secondly, accompany excellent companies. Excellent companies can create long-term value; thirdly, understand cycles; and fourthly, do not predict the market.
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