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Hong Hao: The low point before the new year may be one of the lowest points in the market this year. Opportunities will arise in high-growth areas.
Despite the outward pessimism, some industries are still bullish.
Recently, Hong Hao, chief economist of Sinology Group, made judgments on the Chinese economy and capital market. He stated that the Chinese economy is undergoing restructuring. Despite the surface pessimism in the market, certain industries are still in a bull market. In addition to industries with high dividend yields such as banks, the technology industry is also performing well. It will take a few more years for the real estate market to come out of chaos. On one hand, the inventory in the real estate sector is still increasing, while on the other hand, land, as the main source of local government income, is still decreasing. The national team will support it in a weak market, so the low point before the Chinese New Year is actually one of the lowest points of the year. Since last year, Chinese government bonds have performed very well, with long-term government bond yields constantly hitting new lows, starting lower from here. Regarding industries, he believes that people need to look at the economy from two different perspectives. The real estate industry is still struggling and battling. In terms of new home sales, the numbers for February and January are still weak. Second-hand homes in first-tier cities seem to be slightly rebounding, but new home sales are still struggling. This means that for many developers, they are nearly unable to show any profits. On one hand, the inventory is still increasing, while land, as the main source of local government income, is still decreasing. But it must be understood that the real estate industry now contributes less to GDP growth than the manufacturing industry. The manufacturing industry is growing rapidly, with many areas developing quickly, but the chaos in the real estate sector will take several years to resolve. On the other hand, the electric vehicle industry, new energy industry, semiconductor industry, and AI industry are actually showing vigorous sales and revenue growth. At this critical moment, people need to look at the economy from two different perspectives because the economy is undergoing restructuring. Industries that have performed well this year, in addition to industries with high dividend yields like banks, the technology industry has also performed well. Since reaching a low point before the Chinese New Year and correcting it last Friday, Hong Kong's technology industry has risen by about 20%, indicating that despite the surface pessimism, some industries are still experiencing a bull market. Regarding market positioning, he pointed out that the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission quickly introduced many new regulations. For example, many company owners cannot use the shares of companies cleared through initial public offerings to divest to retail shareholders, which is a good change. So, the decline seen before the Chinese New Year is a short-term market structural issue, as you can see that all these derivatives are starting to come in, dragging down the market due to the execution of these options. It is now very clear that the national team will also support the market in a weak market, so the low point before the Chinese New Year is actually one of the lowest points of the year. Regarding government bond yields, he judged that firstly, short-selling the market is not encouraged, so even if you have a long position, you cannot short the index futures. Secondly, in Chinese culture, volatility is really disliked, which means that many hedge funds that have historically performed well due to market volatility now do not have such ideas. Investors can move their funds from these hedge funds to other strategies. For example, since last year, Chinese government bonds have performed very well, with long-term government bond yields constantly hitting new lows, starting lower from here. Regarding opportunities, he pointed out that quantitative funds have been in the Chinese market for almost 10 years. In the past 10 years, they have been long on small-cap stocks for the long term and short-term in the short term. Therefore, they have produced significant returns year after year. Some funds have actually achieved annualized returns of over 50% in the past 10 years, which is very impressive. So, it cannot be said that trading for 10 years makes one inexperienced. This is actually due to the snowball effect. The snowball structure started to appear, dragging down the index, and also due to a partial liquidity crisis, during that time, there was not enough liquidity to purchase all the micro-cap and super stocks, so only the larger market portions were saved, resulting in a huge discrepancy in returns between large-cap and small-cap stocks. However, that phase has passed. Now it is necessary to look forward and continue to search for new opportunities, which are often found in high-growth areas in the market.
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