On April 9, Schroders global investment team issued a report stating that despite some difficulties in the global manufacturing cycle in 2023, it is clear that the start of March 2024 is more stable. In recent months, Schroders global investment has been advocating the view that the manufacturing sector will hit bottom before rebounding, and this situation is now evident in leading indicators. Currently, Schroders global investment believes that this upward trend aligns with an economic "soft landing" scenario and is unlikely to lead to the overheating issues faced by the commodities sales industry in 2021 and 2022. The labor market is another key factor in predicting the scenario, with the likelihood of overheating appearing less likely in the United States. Therefore, while an economic "no-landing" remains the most important extreme risk, since February 2024, Schroders global investment has lowered its likelihood and slightly increased the probability of an economic "hard landing." Schroders global investment believes that the likelihood of an economic "no-landing" has peaked. The labor market is crucial in the policymaking process and in determining the probability scenarios for Schroders global investment. Moderate economic data reduces the likelihood of an economic "no-landing" scenario while slightly increasing the risk of a "hard landing." In fact, the tighter the labor market, the higher the risk of an economic "no-landing." Recent economic data reflects a decrease in the risk of labor shortages in the United States, with more data showing a potential easing. Schroders global investment points out that loose financial conditions, stimulative fiscal policies, and increased defense spending during periods of geopolitical tension have been the main drivers of leading economic indicators in the global manufacturing cycle. These factors are unlikely to reverse quickly. Schroders global investment believes they reflect a moderate economic rebound and align with expectations of a "soft landing." In the Eurozone, with the impact of monetary tightening policies gradually fading, leading indicators also show significant economic improvement. Due to the relatively weak economic growth expectations in the Eurozone, there is a higher likelihood of exceeding expectations and bringing positive surprises. However, inflation slowed in 2023, but this trend may stall in 2024, and investors should remain vigilant. Schroders global investment believes that even if inflation worsens, it is unlikely to affect the start of a loose cycle in Europe. The European Central Bank appears committed to cutting interest rates in June. However, this also indicates long-term potential challenges. After June 2024, there will be too many, too rapid expectations of interest rate cuts in the financial markets. In terms of investment, in the past month, due to improved bond valuations, especially in the United States, Schroders global investment has increased its overall view on duration (interest rate risk). The selling of bonds and the reduced likelihood of an economic "no-landing" have made bond yields more attractive. Due to improving economic prospects in the Eurozone, potential continued inflation, and relatively high valuations, Schroders global investment leans towards shorting German government bonds across markets, especially relative to UK government bonds. Although Schroders global investment has slightly lowered its rating on the US yield curve, it still positions steep curve trades as the core of its portfolio. While it still has upside potential, it is now lower than the previous target level. In terms of asset allocation, Schroders global investment still favors covered bonds. For corporate credit, given the continuously low attractiveness of valuations, it maintains a relatively bearish view on US investment-grade and high-yield bonds. In the Eurozone, investment-grade credit has performed strongly, and despite high valuations, the outlook remains positive.