Standard Chartered: Gold prices may still reach new highs, suggesting buying opportunities near $2200.

2024-04-15 16:11

Zhitongcaijing
After the recent repeated highs in the price of gold, there will be a short-term adjustment and consolidation, so global central banks will not chase high.
Geopolitical risks are rising, and international gold prices hit a new high last Friday. Standard Chartered's North Asia Chief Investment Officer Zheng Zifeng said that after gold prices have repeatedly hit new highs recently, there will be a short-term adjustment and consolidation. Therefore, global central banks will not aggressively chase, and consumers in China and India will reduce their gold purchases. It is recommended to wait for gold prices to fall to around $2,200 before buying in the medium to long term.
Zheng Zifeng pointed out that there is still a possibility of gold prices reaching new highs, as it is difficult to increase the supply of gold in the short term. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in June or July, it will reduce the opportunity cost of buying gold. Therefore, under the expectation of an economic soft landing, when interest rates peak and fall back, the attractiveness of gold will increase.
Zheng Zifeng said that general investors generally hold stocks and bonds, ignoring commodities. However, with high inflation pressure, it will depress bond prices and affect stock performance. Therefore, it is recommended to buy commodity categories to diversify investment risks, as the correlation between commodities like oil and gold and stock prices is low, making the investment portfolio more diversified.
In addition, Zheng Zifeng pointed out that the United States will hold a presidential election in November, meaning that geopolitical factors will remain at a high level in the second half of the year, which is also favorable for the performance of oil prices and gold prices. Therefore, investing in gold mining stocks and other resource stocks has a certain attractiveness.
Strong U.S. inflation data increases uncertainty about a Fed rate cut. But Zheng Zifeng believes that CPI data has a lagging effect and recommends that investors focus on forward-looking factors, such as wage growth and job cuts. Standard Chartered still believes that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, maintaining its forecast of three rate cuts for this year.