Huatai Fund Manager Bei Bei: Gold investment focuses on four major indicators, silver has greater flexibility.

2024-04-25 20:48

Zhitongcaijing
Recently, Hu Tianfu fund manager Guo Beibei stated that gold investment should focus on medium and long-term factors such as interest rates, inflation levels, and the level of trust in the global monetary system.
Recently, Huibao Fund manager Guo Beibei stated that gold investment should focus on medium and long-term factors such as interest rates, inflation levels, and the level of trust in the global monetary system. Short-term factors mainly depend on geopolitical conflicts. She believes that a rise in overseas interest rates may not necessarily lead to a decrease in gold prices, as its impact is limited. The price trend of silver is consistent with gold, but it has greater elasticity. When there is an expectation of a decrease in overseas interest rates, the elasticity of silver will be greater than that of gold.
Guo Beibei said that gold has been on an upward trend for the past two years, although the increase last year was not as significant as in US stocks. However, this year is different, as the volatility of US technology stocks has increased, with larger daily fluctuations, and the market has shown a significant period of consolidation before moving downwards. In comparison, the upward trend from the bottom of gold has been relatively stable.
Since the beginning of this year, the global gold price index has risen by more than 14%, reflecting the changes of this year. Looking back over the past six years, overseas gold prices have only experienced negative growth in one year, with positive returns in other years. The performance of domestic gold and overseas gold is different, as the increase in the price of domestic gold in the past three years has exceeded that of overseas gold. Buying the same weight of gold domestically requires an additional expense of 30 yuan, which is the premium of domestic gold compared to overseas gold.
Therefore, if investors purchased domestic gold last year, they may feel that the price increase is higher compared to overseas gold. This year, the premium of domestic gold relative to overseas gold has narrowed, but there is still a premium of over ten yuan per gram. This means that when allocating gold, it is necessary to distinguish between allocating overseas gold or domestic gold.
Guo Beibei believes that the main driving factors behind gold are financial factors, including interest rates, inflation, currency credit, and geopolitical factors. The price of gold is not related to industrial demand or the use of gold in industry. Gold investment should focus on medium and long-term factors such as interest rates, inflation levels, and the level of trust in the global monetary system. Short-term factors mainly depend on geopolitical conflicts. If the risk of geopolitical conflict is significant, global investors may allocate gold to hedge against geopolitical risks. From a cost perspective, gold at jewelry counters is the most expensive, followed by banks, and purchasing gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange may lead to more direct price changes.
Regarding physical gold investment, paper gold, or gold funds, Guo Beibei believes that only two categories of gold investment should be considered: physical gold and funds. If one does not want to purchase physical gold due to security concerns, funds are a convenient choice, as they are backed by physical gold. If one wants to pass down gold as part of family inheritance and is not concerned about price fluctuations, physical gold can be chosen. If one wants to profit from the volatility of gold prices, funds are a relatively simple investment option.
Guo Beibei pointed out that the current rise in the non-ferrous metal sector is mainly driven by the rise in gold and copper prices. However, from a spot perspective, apart from copper, there has not been much change in the prices of other industrial metals. This is because economic activity is not strong in a high-interest rate environment overseas. In such an environment, industrial demand is not strong, leading to limited increases in industrial metal prices.
Guo Beibei mentioned that metals have both financial and commodity attributes, with gold representing the financial aspect and copper and aluminum representing the commodity aspect. Silver falls in between, with some industrial and financial attributes. When the silver price exceeds the rise in gold, it usually occurs when there is a change in the gold-silver ratio. Since March, the increase in the price of silver has been twice that of gold, reflecting a catch-up phenomenon. The price trend of silver is consistent with gold, but has greater elasticity. When there is an expectation of a decrease in overseas interest rates, the elasticity of silver will be greater than that of gold.