Ba Ling Fang Weichang: It is difficult to say that Hong Kong stocks have already turned around. It is expected that the stock market will still experience significant volatility in May and June.

2024-05-06 10:34

Zhitongcaijing
The rebound of the Hong Kong stock market this time may be due to the weakening of other markets after reaching new highs, with funds looking for safe havens.
In recent days, the Hong Kong stock market has regained momentum, and the Hang Seng Index has surpassed the 18000 level. When asked if the Hong Kong stock market has turned around, Fang Weichang, the chief investment officer of Baberleng Stock Investment, believes that it is too early to say. With the news from mainland China quieting down, this rebound in the Hong Kong stock market may be due to other markets starting to weaken after hitting record highs, with funds looking for safe havens. The Federal Reserve also has no plans to raise interest rates again, signaling that interest rates have peaked. Due to the low valuation of the Chinese market, funds are turning their interest back to Chinese stocks.
Although China lacks significant catalysts, Fang Weichang points out that many companies in Hong Kong are increasing dividends and buybacks during this earnings season, which is a positive factor. As long as US-China relations and geopolitical tensions ease, it will be positive for the stock market. However, it is difficult to say whether the upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market will continue.
Fang Weichang mentioned that the Hong Kong stock market is still significantly behind, and after the market bottoms out, valuation will surely precede profitability. However, there will be fluctuations in this process, with expectations of greater volatility in May and June. Investors will also need to observe the movements of international funds after other stock markets adjust, with foreign funds paying more attention to the performance of mainland real estate and retail sectors. Currently, there is hope for a significant recovery in the Chinese economy and profits, while in the US, inflation levels will be a factor to watch. If inflation falls further, there will be more reasons for the Hong Kong stock market to rise.
In terms of investment, Fang Weichang maintains a holding position in medium to undervalued stocks, mainly due to dividends after earnings have not decreased, reaching levels of 8 to 9%. He also continues to be optimistic about energy stocks, as oil prices are not expected to have a significant downside under geopolitical disturbances. However, he stated that if these high-yield stocks lack upward momentum, he will consider adjusting his portfolio to lock in profits.