Janus Fund issued a statement stating that the annualized GDP growth rate in the United States for the first quarter was 1.6%, lower than the unanimous expectation of 2.5%. However, the market may focus on the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data for March, with the index showing an annualized growth rate of 3.7%, exceeding the unanimous expectation of 3.4%. Despite the slowdown in GDP data for the first quarter, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June have weakened due to the acceleration of inflation reflected in the consumer price index (CPI), PCE index, and retail sales data for March. It is still expected that the Federal Reserve will cut rates for the first time during the third quarter, with a total of 2 to 3 rate cuts expected within the year. The belief is that the road to inflation resistance in the United States will be bumpy at times. Currently, such bumps will undoubtedly delay the timing of the first rate cut, but this does not mean that all is lost. Ultimately, it is believed that as long as the United States maintains strong growth, it is still better not to cut rates, even if growth is weak and inflation is slowing down. Looking closely at recent economic data, disappointing economic growth in the first quarter was due to weak exports and a decline in government spending, but household consumption and private sector spending remained strong. As some sectors of the US economy continue to grow better than expected, recent CPI inflation data has shown an increase. This does not necessarily mean that the process of resisting inflation has stopped, it just hasn't been as smooth as expected. Given the resilient labor market pushing up inflation pressure and consumption, some market participants expect further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, the likelihood of a rate hike is very small in the current interest rate environment. All eyes will be on the next labor market and monthly CPI data. Overall, the process of resisting inflation in the US economy continues widely, as a significant number of immigrants have brought balance to the labor market. There is no doubt that the US economy is still quite resilient, but some data indicates that consumers are starting to encounter some unfavorable factors. For example, credit card delinquency rates in the United States hit a record high since 2012 in the fourth quarter of last year. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee generally believe that current monetary policy is indeed in a "restrictive area," but the urgency for easing the environment may have disappeared. Fed Chairman Powell mentioned that the Fed can flexibly "maintain the current restrictive level as needed" based on upcoming data. Regarding US stocks and risk assets, Janus Fund believes that the impact on risk assets will be quite limited if the Fed delays the rate cut. At the beginning of 2024, the market expected the Fed to cut rates 6 or 7 times. Now, those expectations have been reduced to near the Fed's dot plot, but risk assets continue to perform well. During the first quarter, the US stock market repeatedly hit new highs, and credit spreads were very tight. This was not entirely surprising due to the continued positive market sentiment this year. Clearly, strong growth has offset expectations for high interest rates to remain prolonged. However, with valuations rising, the market may still experience tactical pullbacks. Regarding Asian stocks and currencies, Janus Fund pointed out that the impact on Asia is slightly more pronounced. Domestic fundamentals, coupled with a more optimistic inflation outlook, suggest that central banks in various Asian countries may cut rates faster. However, these countries may follow the policy direction of the US Federal Reserve to maintain their own currencies. Even so, the strong global trade cycle and robust US consumer spending have benefited some export-oriented countries and regions like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. Recent performance of Asian stocks also indicates that domestic factors will have a greater impact on returns. From a currency perspective, the US dollar may remain strong in the short term and could impact the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China, as both central banks are working to curb the strengthening of their currencies against the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates at its June or July meeting. Regarding emerging market debt, Janus Fund believes that the excellent performance of emerging market debt is somewhat unexpected, as compared to developed market bonds, they continue to favor emerging market debt. Despite aggressive Fed policy, a strong US dollar, weak Chinese economy, and geopolitical risks, bonds in Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia perform better than those in developed markets. This is mainly due to emerging market countries maintaining fiscal prudence during the COVID-19 pandemic, purchasing goods from Russia in yuan through China, and having much better current account positions than ten years ago. Even if the Fed delays the rate cut until later this year, the future prospects for emerging market government debt remain bright. Overall, the future path of the Federal Reserve's policies may not be clear, but there seems to be no reason for a significant delay in the rate cut. This will mainly depend on the upcoming data. A tight labor market could be a major risk, but steady wage growth is encouraging.