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Institution: Limited upside potential for US stocks, small businesses offer better value compared to growth stocks.
The valuation of US stocks remains high, especially compared to stocks in Europe and China; moreover, given the strong performance of the market recently, the potential for further gains before the traditional year-end rally is limited.
The French Agricultural Credit Bank Group (Cracdiit Agricole) subsidiary, Indosuez Wealth Management, has stated that after reaching a new record at the end of March 2024, the US stock market is now stagnating, and even experiencing some profit-taking after a 6-month rise. Unlike last year, in 2024, submarkets outside of the "Magnificent Seven" have seen growth. Following the record-breaking first quarter of the US stock market, uncertainty in the monetary policy closely related to the Federal Reserve's response to economic recovery, along with the continuous escalation of geopolitical tensions, has triggered a new round of market volatility. Nevertheless, US stock valuation remains high, especially compared to European and Chinese stocks; and given the recent strong market performance, the potential for further gains is limited before the traditional year-end rally. Although the rising US interest rates are putting pressure on already high valuation multiples, growth style stocks are performing well. While the profit prospects of growth companies are still rising, most of it is attributed to the "Magnificent Seven." In the long term, a constructive view is maintained on stocks of these famous companies, given their attractive growth prospects; however, recent market trends make value-style stocks more appealing. As the global economy returns to growth and inflation follows closely, geopolitical risks increase, and value-style industries (energy, raw materials, banks) are expected to rise, as are cyclic stocks that are highly present in Europe and the UK. Indosuez Wealth Management believes that in the US, small businesses may be a better alternative to value stocks, as they still enjoy significant discounts in valuation and will benefit from US domestic themes on the eve of the presidential election, provided that investors keep their funds in profitable "value" famous companies. Furthermore, the US stock market's dominance by growth investment styles has outperformed other investment styles and has shown excellent performance driven by certain technology stocks, raising concerns about the current level of concentration in the US market. Against this backdrop, the key is to be selective and have diversified risk exposure. With the Federal Reserve expected to start cutting rates in the second half of the year, small businesses should benefit from loose financial conditions in a situation where valuations are already attractive. Indosuez Wealth Management mentioned that compared to the US stock market, European stocks are still trading at a significant discount. In recent months, the growth potential related to artificial intelligence has exacerbated this valuation gap, with global leading technology companies primarily located in the US, where AI is more robust. Nevertheless, the valuation gap is most significant in cyclical industries such as financial services, energy, and materials. In Europe, various driving factors are pushing for the recovery of cyclical stocks. Firstly, these stocks benefit from the global recovery of PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) and manufacturing cyclical recovery; secondly, investors anticipate a rate cut from the European Central Bank before the Federal Reserve. Moreover, escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, combined with the rebound in the Chinese economy, could lead to an increase in oil and raw material prices. Sector rotations in Europe have already begun. The first quarter of 2014 performance reporting season is underway, which will confirm the momentum of company earnings and help identify the correct investment style. Additionally, since the end of January 2024, the Chinese stock market (especially the domestic market) as well as the stock markets of China Taiwan and South Korea have experienced a strong rebound. The Chinese Taiwan tech supply chain (AI/cloud/servers) is showing several optimistic signs, and South Korea's ongoing corporate value enhancement plan is supporting the market. Major semiconductor manufacturers continue to attract investor inflows.
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