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CICC Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook: Bright Future Ahead, Consumer Indicators May Be the Next Catalyst.
Zhao Yaoting said that for Hong Kong stocks, the road ahead has never been clearer in recent years.
Zhao Yaoting, the Global Market Strategist for JP Morgan Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), wrote that since hitting bottom in January, the Hang Seng Index has rebounded by nearly one-fourth. The H-share index, reflecting the Hong Kong-listed companies, has risen by about 30%, while the MSCI China Index has risen by nearly 20% (in USD terms). He continued by stating that the future for Hong Kong stocks has never been clearer in recent years. One of the main catalysts for future Hong Kong stocks will come from consumer indicators, with some data showing improvement. Zhao Yaoting mentioned that the economic environment in China and the United States is improving. Recent Federal Open Market Committee meetings highlighted the US central bank's continued tendency to ease policy, while the favorable news released from the Central Political Bureau meeting held in Beijing indicated that more stimulus measures would be implemented, along with regulatory support for offshore markets. Investors seem to be shifting their focus from overcrowded investment themes such as artificial intelligence, China, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States markets to more value-based investment propositions and stocks with lower valuations. Hong Kong stocks have naturally become the market's focus. However, despite the strong performance since the beginning of the year, H-shares are still discounted by over 40% compared to their A-share counterparts in the same category. He mentioned that last month, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a series of favorable policies, including the expansion of the mutual market access scheme. This should encourage more mainland capital to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, thereby closing the valuation gap. Over the past month, the daily average inflow of funds through the "Southbound Connect" reached RMB 37 billion (USD 5.1 billion), a significant increase from the RMB 25-30 billion daily average inflow over the past 12 months. Furthermore, Zhao Yaoting stated that recent economic indicators are encouraging. First-quarter growth exceeded expectations, and the flow of tourists during the "Golden Week" holiday indicates that Hong Kong's charm is undiminished. Preliminary consumer data from China's tourism industry during the "Golden Week" holiday period showed strong performance, with international flight bookings reaching a new high after the COVID-19 pandemic, and intercity travel saw a significant increase in volume.
East Asia Union Investment: It is reasonable to expect the United States to cut interest rates 1 to 2 times this year, with a focus on investing in Asian technology.
Institution: Limited upside potential for US stocks, small businesses offer better value compared to growth stocks.
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