StashAway: Optimistic about the US delay in interest rate cuts, Fed policy shift may benefit emerging markets in Asia.

2024-05-16 17:02

Zhitongcaijing
Investors can focus their thinking on "when to cut interest rates" and "by how much", rather than "whether interest rates will be cut at all". When the US starts cutting interest rates, investors may see an increase in cash flow, leading to increased capital flows that could benefit emerging markets in Asia.
To deal with persistent stubborn high inflation pressure, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive time. In addition, the US dollar has appreciated by over 4% against other currencies (whether developed or emerging markets), completely opposite to the market's expectations at the beginning of the year of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a decline in the US dollar. Smart investment platform StashAway's economic analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's postponement of a rate cut is not as bad as imagined. Investors should focus on when and by how much the rate will be cut, rather than whether it will be cut at all. When the US starts cutting rates, investors may see increased capital flow, benefiting emerging markets in Asia.
StashAway's economic analysts point out that the US economy is unexpectedly strong. Although the market has been expecting the US to possibly enter an economic recession, the US economy grew by 2.5% last year. StashAway's economic analysts expect the US economy to grow by 2.7% this year, more than double the growth rate of other G7 countries, with Europe and Japan's economic growth rates only around 0.8% to 0.9%, undoubtedly stimulating demand for the US dollar in the market.
Furthermore, the US's inflation problem remains severe, not only failing to fall to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, but the inflation rate in recent months has exceeded expectations, leading to the Federal Reserve postponing rate cuts, further boosting the performance of the US dollar. In addition, geopolitical tensions continue to cause market concerns, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, further driving the performance of the dollar.
The above favorable factors have led to the appreciation of the US dollar, and high interest rates ultimately continue to favor international investors' preference for holding the US dollar; the futures market overall is bullish on the US dollar and bearish on other major currencies, in stark contrast to the expectations at the beginning of the year for a decline in the US dollar.
StashAway's economic analysts believe that the current performance of the US economy remains strong, and the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates. In fact, although the inflation rate remains high, as long as the US economy continues to perform strongly, it is beneficial for corporate earnings and stock market performance, as moderate inflation has a positive impact on the stock market. Looking back at historical data, the S&P 500 Index maintains an inflation rate between 3% to 5% annually (similar to the current inflation rate), and the average return rate is still 8.5%, indicating that the economy is recovering.
Due to strong GDP data in the Asia-Pacific region, Asian stock markets are experiencing significant increases. Firstly, Indonesia's first quarter GDP grew strongly by 5.1%, exceeding expectations and boosting the performance of the Jakarta Stock Exchange and the Rupiah. As for Taiwan, driven by increased demand for technology, the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of this year reached a high of 6.5%; at the same time, foreign investment in Malaysia's stock market has reached the largest scale in two years, leading its index to a 52-week high. When the US starts cutting rates, investors may see increased capital inflows, benefiting emerging markets in Asia.