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Daiwa Xing Ziqiang: Economic stability supports Hong Kong stocks to rise, Implementing the "Nine National Policies" can boost market sentiment.
Daiwa believes that China's policies in some areas are making positive progress step by step, and economic growth is expected to remain stable this year.
Since mid-April, the Hong Kong stock market has rebounded strongly. Xing Ziqiang, chief economist for Morgan Stanley China, stated that the market is actively exploring the driving factors behind the rise in Hong Kong stocks. At the macro level, although the economic data for April already released shows that market sentiment may be slightly optimistic, the economy has stabilized with support from exports and manufacturing investment, which is gradually becoming a market consensus. The next focus is on the sustainability of the stabilized growth. Morgan Stanley believes that China's policies in some areas are gradually making positive progress, and economic growth is expected to remain stable this year. Regarding domestic consumer demand, Xing Ziqiang believes that the government's plan to stimulate the auto industry by encouraging people to trade in old cars for new ones is better than expected, which should indirectly support the economy and improve the supply-demand balance in the electric vehicle industry. In terms of the real estate market, Xing Ziqiang pointed out that the market is beginning to anticipate that the Chinese government may use fiscal or quasi-fiscal tools to purchase unsold homes. Even though the implementation may be complex, Morgan Stanley estimates that there is still a possibility of a package of moderate policies being introduced, which could help alleviate the liquidity pressure on developers and improve buyer confidence. Furthermore, regarding the new "Nine Articles of State," Xing Ziqiang stated that if the measures are implemented, it would be beneficial for promoting China's economic transition towards a consumption-based model and could boost market sentiment.
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