logo
Login
Register
Fidelity International: Uncertainty remains despite the US interest rate cut, US investment-grade bonds can enjoy three major advantages.
Currently investing in US investment grade bonds has three major advantages, it can avoid bearing higher risks, lock in attractive yields, and potentially enhance overall returns.
Pan Enmei, Director of Distribution for Hong Kong and China Offshore at Fidelity International, stated in a post that the US April inflation data is in line with expectations, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are rising again. With signs of weakening consumer demand in the US, the rate cut pace may exceed market expectations. Faced with uncertainty, investing in US investment grade bonds currently offers three major advantages: avoiding high risks, locking in attractive yields, and potentially increasing total returns. Fidelity expects inflation to decrease this year, but inflation in certain areas may remain high, increasing pressure on consumers and possibly hindering US economic growth. Despite the resilience of the US economy at present, it is widely expected that consumer and job markets will slightly weaken later in the year, and that the rate cut in the US this year will be less than 50 basis points. If US economic growth and labor market data unexpectedly deteriorate, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts in the second half of the year. Given the uncertain outlook for interest rates, careful selection of bonds is crucial. While some high yield bonds and global emerging market bonds may offer attractive yields, if US economic growth slows down, the default rates of these bonds may rise, posing a greater challenge to bond prices. Compared to high yield bonds, investment grade bonds currently may not provide enough risk premium. Investment grade bonds offer relatively attractive risk premiums, with stable fundamentals in US investment grade bonds, combined with yields higher than historical averages. Not only can they provide stable interest income for investors and reduce overall portfolio risk, but with the expected rate cut cycle starting this year, they also offer potential for price growth, and total returns are expected to increase. As European inflation cools down, economic growth remains relatively weak, and the market anticipates that Europe will cut interest rates earlier than the US, leading to better performance of G10 government bonds compared to US treasuries. This also sets a positive foundation for US investment grade bonds. If catalysts emerge, such as the rate cut in the US in the second half of the year being greater than market expectations, it will drive bond prices to perform well, especially in the current global environment where demand for high-quality returns is increasing. In the industry sector, opportunities are emerging for financial industry bonds, with investors paying attention to Yankee bonds issued by major European banks in the US debt market. The regulation of European banks has significantly improved since the financial crisis, allowing them to maintain sufficient capital and strong fundamentals even when profits in other industries are under pressure. However, the valuations of these bonds do not yet reflect this, leading to discounted bond prices. In summary, the uncertainty of US rate cuts remains, so careful selection of high quality bonds, such as US investment grade bonds, can provide three major advantages: lower risk, relatively higher yields, and potential price increases.
Road: US inflation will continue to cool down and we remain positive on fixed income assets.
FMSOne: Hang Seng Index target price maintained at 18500 points Expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates within the year.
Customer Service
Add the WeCom