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Road: US inflation will continue to cool down and we remain positive on fixed income assets.
Considering the current level of income, slowing economic growth, and continuing decline in inflation, Davy Global Investment Management continues to favor fixed income assets.
Daofu Global Investment Management believes that US inflation will continue to cool down, economic activity will be weaker this year compared to last year, but will maintain the basic scenario of a soft landing, and predicts that the earliest the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates is in the summer of this year. Outside the US, it is expected that the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England will each lower interest rates for the first time in June, July, and August, respectively. In addition, it is expected that Japan will raise interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.25% in the second half of this year. Considering the current yield levels, slowing economic growth, and ongoing cooling of inflation, Daofu Global Investment Management continues to favor fixed income asset class. At the same time, with the global order deepening, multiple armed conflicts, fiscal headwinds, and rising protectionism, the upcoming months are expected to see increased geopolitical risks that will impact the market. As global divergence continues to intensify, uncertainty further increases, investors should be prepared for volatility until the situation stabilizes. Geopolitical turmoil may continue to affect the commodity market, thereby exacerbating both the upward and downward risks associated with inflation. Daofu Global Investment Management primarily believes that under the continuous slowdown of inflation, the Federal Reserve can implement a series of interest rate cuts to bring short-term rates to a more appropriate level. However, given the recent hints from the Federal Reserve on the importance of unemployment rate data, achieving the target of lowering inflation to 2% may not be necessary. Therefore, Daofu Global Investment Management will continue to hold long-term bonds as its main risk position. In addition to US treasuries, corporate bonds are not very attractive due to overvaluation. Daofu Global Investment Management believes that there are more investment opportunities in emerging market bonds and structured credit, such as Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS). However, in these two areas, investors must carefully consider the actual fundamentals, such as the real estate of companies or the need for a cautious investment strategy in the Chinese market. Whether it's a soft landing or a hard landing, Daofu Global Investment Management still believes that the current interest rate levels present attractive entry opportunities for investors. Daofu Global Investment Management maintains a cautious attitude towards risk assets, preferring quality stocks in the stock market. In the US, despite the strong performance of value stocks such as energy, finance, and industry, Daofu Global Investment Management still prefers growth stocks. The proportion of cyclical companies in Europe is high, which means that if the European Central Bank is concerned about the weakening euro causing imported inflation and does not lower interest rates before other major central banks, the European market will also be affected by slowing economic growth. There are not many stocks in this region that meet quality standards, and the expectation of slowing profit growth offsets the relatively attractive valuations. In addition, even though the Japanese stock market has experienced a sharp rise, factors such as corporate governance reform, stock buybacks, and expansion of tax-free retail plans make Japan's investment environment still worthy of attention. Daofu Global Investment Management still believes that in the current global situation, emerging markets will remain vulnerable, but there are indeed investment opportunities in emerging market bonds and select emerging market stocks.
FSMOne: Hang Seng Index target price maintained at 18500 points, expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year.
Fidelity International: Uncertainty remains despite the US interest rate cut, US investment-grade bonds can enjoy three major advantages.
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