Purweshi: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and continue to be optimistic about the Japanese stock market.

2024-06-11 13:53

Zhitongcaijing
Although investors have gradually reduced their expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024, Purvis still predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in the December meeting after the November US presidential election, and may cut once more in the summer.
Prudential expressed that despite investors gradually lowering their expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2024, the bank still expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting after the November US election, and may cut rates once in the summer. In the international stock market, the bank continues to favor Japan, as the improvement in corporate governance standards will have a significant positive impact on company performance. South Korea is also following Japan by improving corporate governance to increase stock valuations. With supply chains becoming more diversified, India will continue to attract international investment, and recent election results reflect a focus on growth and consumption-related policies.
Thomas Poullaouec, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions for Prudential's Asia-Pacific region, stated that the US economy may not enter a recession in the next 6 months, and leading economic indicators show growth in more regions globally, indicating that the dominance of the US economy may change. Therefore, understanding the future trend of inflation will be key for the investment market in the second half of the year. Since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, predicting the trend of inflation has been difficult. However, inflation is clearly not cooling down as quickly as central banks expected, and with the labor market remaining robust, there is a significant risk of inflation rising again.
He pointed out that fiscal spending in an election year will also exacerbate upward pressure on inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties could lead to another sharp rise in energy prices. All these factors make it harder for central banks to balance supporting economic growth with controlling inflation. Therefore, the bank expects the market to continue repricing central bank actions, leading to an increase in market volatility from the current relatively moderate levels.
Additionally, Ken Orchard, Prudential's International Fixed Income Director and Manager of the Global Multi-Category Bond Strategy and Multi-Income Bond Strategy funds, noted that although investors have gradually lowered their expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2024, the bank still expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting after the November US election, and may cut rates once in the summer. The Fed hopes to avoid any signs of its rate cut decisions being influenced by politics, so it may not take action at the September or November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Fed officials seem intent on conducting one or two "preventive rate cuts" in 2024 to prevent economic slowdown when inflation cools down.
Meanwhile, Rahul Ghosh, Prudential's Global Equity Portfolio Specialist, stated that in the international stock market, the bank continues to favor Japan, as the improvement in corporate governance standards will have a significant positive impact on company performance. South Korea is also following Japan by improving corporate governance to increase stock valuations. With supply chains becoming more diversified, India will continue to attract international investment, and recent election results reflect a focus on growth and consumption-related policies. Additionally, given Vietnam's growing consumer economy and the potential for its stock market to be promoted to an emerging market, its stock valuations appear relatively low.