Schroders Global Investment's Senior Emerging Markets Economist David Rees, Senior US Economist George Brown, and Senior European Economist and Strategist Azad Zangana have released the latest economic forecast. They have made minor adjustments to their global economic forecast, with trends suggesting a resurgence in inflation. Global economic growth is expected to reach 2.8% in 2024, higher than their previous forecast of 2.6%. Additionally, most major economies are expected to achieve higher than expected growth in the next 18 months. Schroders Global Investment pointed out that in 2024, the US will continue to be the main driver of global economic growth, with past real wage growth expected to support consumer spending throughout the year. The strong consumer spending in the US will continue to support the global manufacturing industry recovery. This trend, along with escalating geopolitical risks and energy transition, suggests that commodity prices may further rise. However, the rise in commodity prices may complicate the process of slowing down inflation, and the time required for inflation to fall back may be longer than expected. Due to references to past economic recessions and current inflation declines, it is expected that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates in the summer to support economic growth in 2025 that is higher than what the financial markets expect. The uneven pace of global economic growth will make the Federal Reserve the last major central bank to cut interest rates. Therefore, despite an expanding current account deficit and fiscal deficit, which will eventually create pressure on the dollar, the dollar seems to remain strong for a longer period in the short term. Overall, the steady growth of the global economy, no signs of an imminent recession in the US economy, and the continuing trend of easing inflation have laid the foundation for their baseline forecast, while also reflecting that financial markets will maintain good performance. Schroders Global Investment stated that despite a weak performance of the US economy earlier this year, it is expected to achieve a growth rate of 2.7% in 2024. Strong household consumption, stable first-quarter performance, is expected to lay the foundation for strong growth in the second quarter, and is also enough to compensate for the impact of weak government spending. Furthermore, with strong increases in job positions, good real wage growth, and increasing consumer confidence, domestic demand is expected to remain strong. Export-led industries will benefit from the global commodity cycle recovery, but investment markets may remain sluggish before the US presidential elections. Schroders Global Investment has raised its forecast for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2024 from 2.7% to 3.1%. Schroders Global Investment's baseline forecast is that when inflation fully falls back and the labor market situation reaches a balance, policymakers will have the confidence to cut interest rates. Currently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2024, fewer than the previous expectation of three times. In the face of uncertain risk factors, the timing and frequency of interest rate cuts may be delayed, reduced, or even not implemented. As for the Eurozone, Schroders Global Investment's economic outlook for 2024 is similar to previous forecasts, but the pace of the cyclical downturn and recovery is accelerating. Schroders Global Investment has raised its forecast for the Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024 from 0.7% to 0.9%. Inflation in the Eurozone is expected to last longer than expected, partly due to the impact of energy prices, as governments cancel energy subsidies and geopolitical events in the Middle East lead to an increase in oil prices, raising the inflation forecast for 2024 from 2.1% to 2.3%. As domestic demand and economic growth in the Eurozone recover to levels higher than expected, the lack of excess capacity in companies (especially labor) will lead to wage increases, forcing companies to raise prices. Although the Eurozone is gradually emerging from economic cyclical recession, the unemployment rate remains close to lows not seen in decades, highlighting the impact of an aging population and hoarding of labor.