Swiss bank Julius Baer believes that the optimistic outlook for stocks is based on a growth cycle that is forming, the US is still in an expansion phase, China's industrial production continues to increase, and global inventory restocking is positive for trade and the European economy. They still favor high-quality growth stocks, but will also consider allocating new funds to more cyclical stocks. The preference for high-quality growth stocks is closely related to the sustainability of investments in artificial intelligence. In emerging markets, they continue to see potential in the Indian market, as it still has continuous compounded growth potential. The Chinese stock market has rebounded significantly from its low in January and the current situation is positive. Given its relatively low valuation, they maintain a "strategic increase" stance on Chinese stocks. The outlook for Japan remains upbeat. Mark Matthews, head of research at Julius Baer Asia, said that the global economy is showing a trend of differentiation this year, mainly manifested at the regional level, with strong economic growth in the US, while other developed markets are experiencing slight contraction. Looking ahead to the second half of 2024 to 2025, global economic recovery is expected to further strengthen. Given the limited impact of current monetary tightening policies on the economy and uncertainty about the trajectory of the anti-inflation process in the future, the US Federal Reserve faces a dilemma in determining the appropriate timing for the first rate cut. Julius Baer expects the US to make its first rate cut in the second half of this year. On the other hand, the eurozone's anti-inflation process is relatively smooth, allowing the European Central Bank to begin its rate cut cycle early. The Julius Baer Global Manufacturing Activity Index indicates that global manufacturing activity has entered an expansion phase. Global GDP growth is expected to be 3% this year and 3.2% next year. Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Investment Management at Julius Baer Asia, stated that the S&P 500 index is expected to be higher at the end of 2024 than the predictions of all institutions, such as JPMorgan and UBS, at 5430 points. Quarterly revenues and profits of the S&P 500 index are expected to gradually improve over the past 4 quarters. Mark Matthews also noted that as the US economy strengthens, and Europe and China release positive cyclical signals, mid-cap stocks, which are more easily influenced by cyclical factors, are also showing an upward trend and have potential to outperform. Julius Baer prefers high-quality mid-cap stocks, as high financing rates will continue to challenge low-quality, highly leveraged companies. In terms of industries, the focus is on industrial stocks. In terms of currency, despite the global economy being in an upward cycle, the US will maintain high rates for a longer period, so any weakening of the US dollar before the US elections will be temporary. Rising interest rates, delayed rate cuts, and the cyclical advantage of the US economy all drive towards a stronger US dollar.