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Hang Seng Xue Yonghui: Hong Kong stocks may have bottomed out at the beginning of the year, the Hang Seng Index continues to rise, waiting for policy incentives.
Xue Yonghui said that Hong Kong stocks probably hit bottom at the beginning of the year, but whether the market has the opportunity to rise further depends on the support policies from the mainland to continue catalyzing the economy and supporting the stock market.
Xue Yonghui, Director and Chief Investment Officer of Hang Seng Investment Management, said that after a four-month uptrend, the Hong Kong stock market has been in a consolidation phase since mid-May. The Hong Kong stock market has likely bottomed out at the beginning of the year, but whether it has the opportunity to move higher depends on the support policies from mainland China to continue catalyzing the economy and supporting the stock market. He has a positive view on the Hong Kong stock market, as the valuation of the Hang Seng Index is currently cheap and has room for further upside. In the second quarter, the China Securities Regulatory Commission supported the Hong Kong capital market by introducing measures such as the national team buying Hong Kong-listed red chip ETFs through the Stock Connect program, and possibly exempting dividend tax on Hong Kong stocks bought through Stock Connect. In terms of real estate policies, the mainland encourages local governments to purchase some existing residential properties at reasonable prices and continues to relax home purchase restrictions. As domestic demand still needs improvement, investors expect that the Third Plenum and the Political Bureau meeting in July may provide more policy catalysts. He pointed out that with the strong and resilient macroeconomic situation in the United States and inflation gradually cooling down, the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates this year and the possibility of a soft landing. Furthermore, against the background of the continued AI hype, the S&P 500 index has reached a record high in closing prices 33 times in the first half of this year. However, investors are concerned about the high concentration of the market, as a few large US technology companies contributed more than half of the S&P 500's gains in the first half of the year. Considering the prospect of a soft landing in the US economy and the AI cycle effect, the profitability gap between large tech companies and other companies is expected to gradually narrow, and a more balanced source of profit growth will make the performance of US stocks more sustainable. Regarding the rate cut in the United States, Xue Yonghui expects that the pace of rate cuts in the US will be slower than expected, with only one rate cut likely this year, or even no rate cuts at all.
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